Re-evaluation on rockfall risk at tunnel entrances and exits during the construction phase of Yichang—Zhengwan high speed railway connection line
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摘要:
新建宜昌至郑万高铁联络线穿越秦岭造山带大巴山弧形构造带东缘，新构造运动强烈，地层岩性纷杂，地形起伏大，隧道洞口边仰坡发育大量危岩体，对联络线施工和运营安全构成严重威胁。在勘察阶段初步评价的基础上，文章以35个初步评估筛选出的风险边坡为研究对象开展再评估。考虑施工临时防护措施的有效性，通过赤平投影分析和模糊数学层次分析法，筛选出2个高风险隧道。之后，利用基于GIS模型和概率模型的RocPro3D模拟软件对落石动力学特征开展了预测分析。结果表明：（1）魏家山隧道出口受落石冲击概率较低，老林岗隧道出口受落石冲击概率极高；（2）老林岗隧道危岩体直接冲击隧道洞口的概率为24.73%，最大冲击能量为
5649 kJ，最大速度为21.82 m/s，冲击点集中在隧道洞口右侧；（3）根据冲击概率、冲击能量、冲击速度、树林和地形等因素，亟须对危岩3区进行工程治理。研究成果可为郑万高铁联络线隧道危岩的有效防治提供参考。-
关键词:
- 危岩 /
- 失稳模式 /
- RocPro3D模拟 /
- 动力学特征 /
- 郑万高铁联络线
Abstract:The new Yichang—Zhengwan high speed railway connection line crosses the eastern edge of the Dabashan arc tectonic belt in the Qinling orogenic belt, with strong neotectonic movement, mixed stratigraphic lithology, large topographic relief, and a large number of perilous rocks developed on the upward slopes of tunnel entrances, which poses a serious threat to the safety of the construction and operation of the connection line. On the basis of the preliminary evaluation during the survey phase, this paper takes 35 risky slopes screened out in the preliminary evaluation as research objects to carry out re-evaluation. Considering the efficacy of temporary construction protective measures, we narrowed down two high risk tunnels using stereographic projection analysis and the fuzzy mathematical analytic hierarchy process. Subsequently, the predictive analysis was conducted to assess the dynamic characteristics of falling rocks by Rockpro3D simulation based on GIS and probability models. The results show that: (1) The exit of the Weijiashan tunnel has a low probability of being impacted by falling rocks, while the exit of the Laolingang tunnel has an extremely high probability of being impacted by falling rocks; (2) The probability of the perilous rock of Laolingang tunnel impacting directly on the tunnel opening is 24.73%, with the maximum impact energy of 6 693 kJ and the maximum speed of 26.2 m/s, and the impact points are concentrated in the right side of the tunnel entrance; (3) According to the factors of impact probability, impact energy, impact velocity, woods and topography, there is an urgent need for engineering management of perilous rock zone 3. The research results can provide reference for the effective prevention and control of perilous rocks in the tunnel of Zheng-Wan high speed railway connection line.
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表 1 危岩落石严重性评价指标权重分级
Table 1. Classification of weights for severity evaluation indicators of perilous rocks
评价因子 权重 轻微 中等 严重 极严重 F1：不利结构面产状与坡面关系 0.1626 未发育结构面，或结构面倾向与坡向夹角>60°，结构面倾角<35° 结构面倾向与坡向夹角>40°且倾角>35° 结构面倾向与坡向
夹角<40°且倾角>35°结构面倾向与坡向夹角<20°且倾角>35° F2：危岩体体积/m3 0.1464 ≤50 50～100 100～500 ≥500 F3：危岩体与母岩分离程度 0.130 0 危岩体与母岩接触，裂隙不发育且张开度小 危岩体与母岩之间裂隙
发育一般，延伸不远危岩体与母岩之间裂隙较发育，裂隙张开程度较大且延伸较远 危岩体与母岩之间多组裂隙发育贯通，张开度大且延伸远 F4：节理发育程度和组合特征 0.1138 节理不发育 节理发育一般，组合较为不利 节理较发育，组合不利 节理极发育，组合极不利 F5：地层岩性组合 0.0976 软质岩为主的边坡 硬质岩边坡 软硬岩互层，或硬质岩为
主夹软质岩的边坡上部厚层硬质岩，下部软岩
或软弱夹层的边坡F6：日降雨量/mm 0.0895 ≤50 50～100 100～250 ＞250 F7：坡型 0.0813 台阶型 凹型 直线型 凸型 F8：坡高/m 0.0569 ≤20 20～50 50～100 ≥100 F9：坡度/（°） 0.0488 ≤20 20～40 40～60 ≥60 F10：植被覆盖率 0.0406 植被极发育且多为乔木 植被较发育且
大部分为乔木植被发育差，多为灌木 植被不发育，多为杂草 F11：地震烈度 0.0325 ≤4 4～6 6～8 ≥8 
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表 2 判断矩阵标度（重要性指标）及其含义
Table 2. Scale and meaning of judgment matrix (importance indexes)
标度值 含义 1 表示两个指标相比，具有同样重要性 3 表示两个指标相比，一个元素比另一个元素稍微重要 5 表示两个指标相比，一个元素比另一个元素明显重要 7 表示两个指标相比，一个元素比另一个元素强烈重要 9 表示两个指标相比，一个元素比另一个元素极端重要 2，4，6，8 2，4，6，8分别表示上述相邻判断1−3、3−5、5−7、7−9的中值 倒数 表示元素i与j比较的判断值aij，则元素j与i比较的判断值aji=1/aij
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表 3 危岩落石自身严重性判别矩阵
Table 3. Self-severity discrimination matrix of rockfall
F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9 F10 F11 F1 1.00 1.11 1.25 1.43 1.67 1.82 2.00 2.86 3.33 4.00 5.00 F2 0.90 1.00 1.13 1.29 1.50 1.64 1.80 2.57 3.00 3.60 4.50 F3 0.80 0.89 1.00 1.14 1.33 1.45 1.60 2.29 2.67 3.20 4.00 F4 0.70 0.78 0.88 1.00 1.17 1.27 1.40 2.00 2.33 2.80 3.50 F5 0.60 0.67 0.75 0.86 1.00 1.09 1.20 1.71 2.00 2.40 3.00 F6 0.55 0.61 0.69 0.79 0.92 1.00 1.10 1.57 1.83 2.20 2.75 F7 0.50 0.56 0.63 0.71 0.83 0.91 1.00 1.43 1.67 2.00 2.50 F8 0.35 0.39 0.44 0.50 0.58 0.64 0.70 1.00 1.17 1.40 1.75 F9 0.30 0.33 0.38 0.43 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.86 1.00 1.20 1.50 F10 0.25 0.28 0.31 0.36 0.42 0.45 0.50 0.71 0.83 1.00 1.25 F11 0.20 0.22 0.25 0.29 0.33 0.36 0.40 0.57 0.67 0.80 1.00
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表 4 层次分析法平均一致性指标值
Table 4. The average consistency index value of the analytic hierarchy process
m 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 RI 0 0 0.58 0.90 1.12 1.24 1.32 1.41 1.45 1.49 1.52 1.54 1.56 1.58
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表 5 危岩落石地质灾害点自身严重程度评价结果
Table 5. Evaluation result of the severity of geological disaster point of rockfall
编号 工点名称 危险度 自身严重性 设计措施 工程措施评估 崩塌后上道概率 风险等级 1 赵家隧道进口 1.8131 低 骨架护坡 低 低 低风险 2 赵家隧道出口 1.4310 低 骨架护坡 低 低 低风险 3 张家隧道进口 1.7562 低 骨架护坡，明洞16 m 中 低 低风险 4 张家隧道出口 1.4310 低 骨架护坡，明洞20 m 中 低 低风险 5 蔡家隧道进口 1.4472 低 骨架护坡，明洞24 m 中 低 低风险 6 蔡家隧道出口 1.3172 低 骨架护坡，明洞37 m 中 低 低风险 7 杨家隧道进口 1.5448 低 骨架护坡，明洞11 m 中 低 低风险 8 杨家隧道出口 1.5936 低 骨架护坡，明洞7 m 中 低 低风险 9 老林岗隧道进口 1.5936 低 骨架护坡，明洞23 m 中 低 低风险 10 老林岗隧道出口 3.2521 高 清危， 1500 kJ被动网2道，明洞30 m高 中 高风险 11 茅山坡隧道进口 2.1464 低 被动网1道，明洞4.75 m 中 低 低风险 12 茅山坡隧道出口 3.2115 低 清危，主动网，被动网1道 高 低 低风险 13 晓峰隧道进口 1.7562 低 骨架护坡，明洞36.5 m 中 低 低风险 14 晓峰隧道出口 2.2684 低 清危，主动网，被动网2道，明洞17 m 中 低 低风险 15 万家山隧道进口 3.0245 低 清危，主动网，被动网1道 中 低 低风险 16 万家山隧道出口 1.5286 中 清危，骨架护坡，被动网1道 中 中 中风险 17 杨三岭隧道进口 1.4798 中 清危，锚杆框架，被动网2道，明洞17 m 高 低 低风险 18 杨三岭隧道出口 1.6099 低 锚杆框架，明洞5 m 中 低 低风险 19 板仓隧道进口 2.3741 中 清危，锚杆框架，被动网1道，明洞15 m 高 中 中风险 20 板仓隧道出口 1.6099 低 清危，骨架护坡，被动网1道，明洞10 m 中 低 低风险 21 吉家坡隧道进口 1.6099 低 清危，骨架护坡，被动网1道，明洞22 m 中 中 低风险 22 吉家坡隧道出口 1.9920 低 清危，被动网1道，明洞7 m 中 中 低风险 23 石岭隧道进口 1.9432 低 清危，被动网1道，明洞11 m 高 低 低风险 24 石岭隧道出口 2.2684 中 锚杆框架，明洞10 m 中 低 低风险 25 白岩隧道进口 1.9351 低 清危，主动网，被动网1道 中 低 低风险 26 白岩隧道出口 1.9838 低 清危，锚杆框架，明洞17 m 中 低 低风险 27 长岗岭隧道进口 2.0895 中 防撞墩、墙 低 低 低风险 28 长岗岭隧道出口 1.8212 低 清危，被动网1道 低 低 低风险 29 魏家山隧道进口 2.0082 中 清危，防撞墩、墙，明洞11 m 中 低 中风险 30 魏家山隧道出口 2.5285 高 清危，被动网1道 低 高 高风险 31 兴山东隧道进口 3.0651 中 分级刷坡，锚杆框架，动网，被动网1道 高 中 中风险 32 兴山东隧道出口 1.8618 低 锚杆框架，明洞18 m 中 低 低风险 33 长岭隧道进口 2.5610 中 清危，主动网，被动网2道 高 低 中风险 34 长岭左线隧道出口 1.4472 低 明洞12 m 中 低 低风险 35 长岭右线隧道出口 1.5529 低 锚杆框架，明洞12 m 中 低 低风险
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表 6 RocPro3D中的计算参数
Table 6. Calculation parameters in RocPro3D
类型 描述 输入数据 危岩体 老林岗隧道出口仰坡 落石区域 密度/（kg·m−3） 形状 直径/m 崖顶区 2.65 球体 2.6 陡崖区 2.4 崖底区 2.1 魏家山隧道出口仰坡 W1 2.60 球体 2.4 W2 2.3 W3 2.3 地貌参数 老林岗隧道出口仰坡 地貌类型 Rn Rt k β_lim/（°） β_lim'/（°） 基岩 0.55 0.90 0.45 2 25 林地 0.25 0.65 0.65 6 45 沟道 0.40 0.85 0.55 4 35 魏家山隧道出口仰坡 基岩 0.55 0.85 0.55 4 32 耕地 0.35 0.80 0.60 8 40 林地 0.27 0.75 0.65 6 45 厂房 0.60 0.90 0.50 3 25 河道 0.00 0.00 10.00 0 0 能量耗散模型 R(V)=R/[1+(|V|/a)2], a= 9.1435 m/s随机数生成模型 真随机数 崩落次数 在每个圈定的危岩体范围内随机释放 1000 次概率模型 高斯变量 $ \varepsilon\mathrm{_{P(Gaussian)}}=\varepsilon+\sigma_{\varepsilon}\cdot N\left(0,1\right) $
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