Quantitative reconstruction of precipitation changes in the Altai Mountains over the past two thousand years based on pollen analysis
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摘要:
为预测未来新疆降水趋势，更好地了解区域长时间尺度降水变化特征是当前古环境研究的关注点。本文基于新疆北部88 cm玉什库勒泥炭岩芯孢粉数据和收集附近800 km范围内627个现代表土孢粉，利用现代类比（MAT）方法，定量重建了阿尔泰山过去2 000 a的降水量变化。结果显示，玉什库勒降水量范围为132～300 mm，0—1010 AD为湿润时期（平均为224 mm），1010—2020 AD为变干时期（平均为182 mm），其中最高降水量出现在约750 AD（300 mm），最低降水量出现在约1910 AD（132 mm）。结合阿尔泰山树轮记录的气温数据，过去2 000 a水热模式呈现了暖湿-冷湿-暖干-冷干-暖湿的演变过程，该变化过程受到NAO和太阳辐射变化引起的西风带南移影响。本研究有助于我们更深入地理解阿尔泰山气候变化机制和规律，为未来的气候预测提供重要参考。
Abstract:To predict future precipitation trends in Xinjiang, better understanding the regional precipitation on long time scales is important for the regional paleoenvironmental research. The precipitation changes in the Altai Mountains over the past 2 000 years were quantitatively reconstructed based on palynological data from the Yushekule Peat that collected from an 88 cm long drill core at the south piedmont of the Altai Mountains in north Xinjiang and 627 modern topsoil samples collected in nearby 800 km-ranged areas using a modern analogue technique (MAT) method. Results show that the precipitation in the Yushekule Peat fluctuated between 132 mm and 300 mm, from a wet period (ca. 224 mm) during 0—1010 AD to a dry period (ca. 182 mm) during 1010—2000 AD. The maximum precipitation occurred at 750 AD (ca. 300 mm) and the minimum at 1910 AD (ca. 132 mm). Combined with the temperature data recorded in tree ring in the Altai Mountains, the hydrothermal model in the past 2000 years demonstrated an evolution process from warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, cold-dry, to warm-wet under the influence of the southward shift of westerlies caused by NAO and solar radiation changes. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms and patterns of climate change in the Altai Mountains, and provides an important reference for future climate prediction.
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Key words:
- pollen and spore /
- quantitative reconstruction /
- precipitation /
- past 2000 years /
- Altai Mountains
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实验室代码 深度/cm 测年材料 14C年龄/a BP AA104612 20 植物残体 477±39 AA104613 30 植物残体 811±39 AA104614 40 植物残体 1108 ±39AA104615 50 植物残体 1176 ±40AA104616 60 植物残体 1546 ±41AA104617 70 植物残体 1558 ±58AA104618 80 植物残体 1951±40 
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表 2 典型对应分析（CCA）与现代孢粉数据的统计和4个气候变量的统计汇总
Table 2. Statistics of canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) and modern pollen data, and four climatic variables for the Yushenkule Peat sequence
气候变量 VIF(含Tann) VIF(不含Tmax) VIF(不含Tmin) VIF(不含Tann) Pann 1.83 1.66 1.66 1.82 Tmin 71037.7 101.55 19.14 Tmax 88268.9 103.79 22.29 Tann 312085.7 107.37 98.34
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