Study on rainfall threshold of geological disasters based on effective rainfall model in Wenzhou City
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摘要:
温州市地处我国东南沿海强降雨核心区，极端降雨事件频繁，历年地质灾害高发。文章通过收集、整理该市历年地质灾害与降雨数据（地质灾害样本
2 692 个，其中时间精确到月份的地质灾害点2 615 个，时间跨度为1905—2023年），对全市地质灾害的发育情况、时空分布规律及其与降雨量的关系进行了分析，并基于有效雨量模型，统计分析了不同类型地质灾害的降雨阈值。结果表明：温州市地质灾害类型主要为台风暴雨群发型与单点突发型。台风暴雨群发型地质灾害的时空分布与台风暴雨活动密切相关，并与降雨极值有较密切的相关性；单点突发型地质灾害的爆发与强降雨之间的相关性一般。通过统计分析，获得了温州市域范围内的台风暴雨群发型滑坡灾害与泥石流灾害在不同概率下的降雨阈值I-D曲线，并提出了不同类型地质灾害的降雨阈值建议。该研究可为温州市地质灾害的预警提供理论支持和科学依据，具有重要的现实意义和应用价值。Abstract:Wenzhou is located in the coastal area of southeast China, where frequent occurrences of extreme rainfall have resulted in a high incidence of geological disasters over the years. This study collects the historical geological disasters and rainfall data of Wenzhou (a total of
2692 geological disaster samples, of which 2 615 are accurately dated to the month, spanning from 1905 to 2023) to analyze the development, spatio-temporal distribution patterns of geological disasters, and their relationship with rainfall. Based on the effective rainfall model, we statistically analyzed the rainfall thresholds of different types of geological disasters in Wenzhou. The results show that the geological disasters in Wenzhou are mainly classified into two categories: the cluster disasters triggered by typhoon-rainstorm and the single-point sudden disasters. Among them, the cluster disasters triggered by typhoon-rainstorm is closely related to typhoon rainstorm activities, and strongly correlated with rainfall extreme, while the single-point sudden geological disasters has less correlation with heavy rainfall. The statistical analysis derives the intensity–duration (I-D) curves of rainfall thresholds at various probabilities for cluster landslide and debris flow disasters triggered by typhoon-rainstorm in Wenzhou. Additionally, it recommends rainfall-threshold values for different types of geological disasters in Wenzhou. This study provides theoretical support and scientific evidence for early warning of geological disasters in Wenzhou, which has significant practical importance and application value.-
Key words:
- Wenzhou City /
- geological disasters /
- typhoon and rainstorm /
- effective rainfall /
- rainfall threshold
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图 13 温州市“桑美”台风期间最大1 h雨量等值线与地质灾害分布（a）、最大3 h雨量等值线与地质灾害分布（b）及最大过程雨量等值线与地质灾害分布图（c）
Figure 13.
图 14 温州市“莫拉克”台风期间最大1 h雨量等值线与地质灾害分布（a）、最大3 h雨量等值线与地质灾害分布（b）及最大过程雨量等值线与地质灾害分布图（c）
Figure 14.
图 15 温州市“利奇马”台风期间最大1 h雨量等值线与地质灾害分布 （a）、最大3 h雨量等值线与地质灾害分布 （b）及最大过程雨量等值线与地质灾害分布图（c）
Figure 15.
表 1 台风暴雨群发型地质灾害及台风数量月度分布统计结果
Table 1. Monthly frequency of typhoon/rainstorm-induced geo-hazards clusters and typhoon
月份 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 合计 群发型地质灾害/个 0 0 0 0 0 0 165 460 612 6 0 0 1243 台风数量/个 0 0 0 1 4 22 53 70 49 11 0 0 210 
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表 2 “桑美”台风降雨极值统计表
Table 2. Statistics of extreme rainfall during Typhoon Saomai
降雨发生后的时间/h 1 3 6 12 24 48 极值降雨量/mm 129.5 240.5 370.3 454.1 474.4 478.5
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表 3 “莫拉克”台风降雨极值统计表
Table 3. Statistics of extreme rainfall during Typhoon Morakot
降雨发生后时间/h 1 3 6 12 24 48 极值降雨量/mm 62.6 139.2 219.8 334 540.5 750
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表 4 “利奇马”台风降雨极值统计表
Table 4. Statistics of extreme rainfall during Typhoon Lekima
降雨发生后时间/h 1 3 6 12 24 48 极值降雨量/mm 168.5 441 565 750 883.5 922
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表 5 不同日数前期累计降雨量与滑坡相关性分析
Table 5. Correlation analysis between cumulative rainfall in different days and landslide
r1 r2 r3 r4 r5 r6 r7 r8 r9 r10 0.3757 0.5345 0.3499 0.2760 0.2841 0.3351 0.3349 0.3013 0.2970 0.2931 注：r1—r10为不同日数前期累计降雨量与滑坡相关系数。
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表 6 不同日数前期累计降雨量与泥石流相关性分析
Table 6. Correlation between debris flow and cumulative rainfall for different days
r1 r2 r3 r4 r5 r6 r7 r8 r9 r10 0.4558 0.6621 0.4257 0.2574 0.2449 0.2615 0.2567 0.1961 0.1933 0.1902 注：r1—r10为不同日数前期累计降雨量与滑坡相关系数。
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表 7 温州市崩滑灾害降雨阈值建议表（基于有效雨量）（单位：mm）
Table 7. Recommended rainfall thresholds for landslide disasters in Wenzhou (based on effective rainfall amount) (mm)
预警时长 启动概率 低概率 中等概率 高概率 I-D曲线 I0=2.38D−0.50 I30=23.03D−0.50 I50=25.30D−0.50 I80=40.60D−0.50 1 h 2.4 23.0 25.3 40.6 3 h 4.2 40.3 44.3 71.1 6 h 5.9 57.4 63.1 101.2 12 h 8.5 81.8 89.8 144.2 24 h 12.0 116.5 127.9 205.3 48 h 17.1 165.9 182.2 292.4
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表 8 温州市泥石流灾害降雨阈值建议表（基于有效雨量）（单位：mm）
Table 8. Recommended rainfall thresholds for debris flow disasters in Wenzhou (based on effective rainfall amount) (mm)
预警时长 启动概率 低概率 中等概率 高概率 I-D曲线 I0=41.98D−0.83 I30=79.64D−0.83 I50=115.86D−0.83 I80=167.60D−0.83 1 h 42.0 79.6 115.9 167.6 3 h 50.6 96.0 139.7 202.0 6 h 56.9 108.0 157.1 227.3 12 h 64.0 121.5 176.8 255.7 24 h 72.1 136.7 198.9 287.7 48 h 81.1 153.8 223.7 323.7
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