Urban construction suitability evaluation based on Analytic Hierarchy Process:a case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
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摘要: 【研究目的】京津冀是工业化、城镇化高度聚集的世界级城市群。长期以来，京津冀地区人地关系矛盾突出，国土空间开发格局与资源环境空间布局匹配程度相对较低，需要科学全面的评价城镇建设适宜性和识别未来适宜城镇建设的潜力空间，以期为城镇开发边界划定、城镇用地集约节约高效利用提供科学依据和决策支持。【研究方法】本文基于“双评价”指南建立京津冀地区城镇建设适宜性评价指标体系，利用层次分析-加权平均综合指数法对该地区的城镇建设适宜性进行了评价。在此基础上，结合土地“三调”数据，按照优先生态保护、稳定耕地数量的原则，依次从城镇建设适宜区中扣除生态保护极重要区，自然保护地，现状湿地、城镇和基础设施建设用地、特殊用地等，识别未来适宜城镇建设的潜力空间。【研究结果】京津冀城镇建设适宜区面积123 027.2 km2，占全区陆地面积的56.98%，一般适宜区面积45 773.43 km2，占21.20%，不适宜区面积4 850.16 km2，占2.25%，城镇建设适宜区潜力规模为4 676.30 km2，河北张家口市和承德市城镇建设用地建设潜力较大，其次为保定市、唐山市和秦皇岛市。【结论】北京东部、天津西部、保定东南部、沧州南部-衡水东、邯郸东部地下水严重超采且存在地面沉降问题，建议结合地下水禁（限）采，有条件时适度优化调整土地利用方式。活动断裂带通过地段可能直接影响城市、交通等重大工程规划建设及运行安全，建议加强活动断裂带调查评价，采取避让活动断层或提高相应抗震设防等级等措施。Abstract: This paper is the result of urban construction suitability evaluation.[Objective] Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is a world-class urban agglomeration with a high concentration of industrialization and urbanization.For a long time, the contradiction between people and land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been prominent, and the matching degree between the pattern of territorial space development and the spatial layout of resources and environment is relatively low.Therefore, it is necessary to scientifically and comprehensively evaluate the suitability of urban construction and identify the potential space suitable for urban construction in the future, so as to provide a scientific basis and decision-making support for the delineation of urban development boundaries and the intensive, economical and efficient use of urban land.[Methods] Based on the guidance of "double evaluation", this paper establishes the evaluation index system of urban construction suitability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and evaluates the urban construction suitability in this region by AHP and weighted average composite index method.On this basis, combined with the"three adjustments"data of land, in accordance with the principle of giving priority to ecological protection and stabilizing the amount of cultivated land, the extremely important ecological protection area, nature protection area, current wetland, urban and infrastructure construction land, special land, etc.are deducted from the suitable urban construction areas in order to identify the potential space suitable for urban construction in the future.[Results] The urban construction suitable area covers 123 027.2 km2, accounting for 56.98% of the total land area of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region; the general suitable area covers 45 773.43 km2, accounting for 21.20%; the unsuitable area covers 4850.16 km2, accounting for 2.25%; the potential scale of the urban construction suitable area is 4 676.30 km2.Hebei Zhangjiakou City and Chengde City have great potential for urban construction land construction, followed by Baoding City, Tangshan City, and Qinhuangdao City.[Conclusions] In the eastern part of Beijing, the western part of Tianjin, the southeastern part of Baoding, the southern part of Cangzhou -the eastern part of Hengshui and the eastern part of Handan, groundwater is seriously overdrawn and there are problems of ground subsidence.It is suggested to combine the prohibition (limit) of groundwater extraction and appropriately optimize and adjust the land use mode when conditions allow.The location of an active fault zone may directly affect the planning, construction, and operation safety of major projects such as cities and transportation, so it is suggested to strengthen the investigation and evaluation of active fault zones and take measures to avoid the active fault or improve the corresponding seismic fortification level.
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