Dynamic evolution characteristics and influencing mechanisms of groundwater in the Zoige Plateau
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Abstract:
The Zoige Plateau, situated on the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, exhibits complex groundwater dynamics influenced by alpine hydrological processes and climatic variability. This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of groundwater in the Zoige alpine basin from 2002 to 2024 using an integrated approach that combines in-situ monitoring, GRACE satellite observations, and GLDAS model outputs. Using the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) method alongside conventional statistical techniques, we identified both seasonal fluctuations and long-term depletion trends. Groundwater levels exhibited clear wet–dry season contrasts and a cumulative decline of up to 2.3 m in grassland flatlands, corresponding to a long-term depletion rate of 0.4 cm/a as indicated by GRACE-derived groundwater storage. The most significant declines occurred in grassland zones, driven by wetland degradation and elevated evapotranspiration, while mountain regions showed slower losses (~0.1 cm/a) primarily supported by sustained snowmelt recharge. Through the integration of multi-source datasets, this study highlights the spatial heterogeneity and key drivers of groundwater variation, providing a robust framework for sustainable groundwater management under climatic and anthropogenic pressures in alpine wetland systems.
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Key words:
- Zoige Plateau /
- Groundwater dynamics /
- GRACE /
- Spatiotemporal variation /
- Climate change
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Table 1. Mann-Kendall, Linear regression (LRM), and ITA trend test results
Area Monitoring point b z ITA slope Wet season Dry season Entire year Northeastern high mountain area JC03 −0.02277 −0.03453 0.00137 0.00290 0.00211 JC04 −0.00655 −0.00566 −0.00131 −0.00028 −0.00068 JC05 −0.01452 0.01140 −0.00376 0.00021 −0.00231 JC11 −0.00590 −0.00521 −0.00065 −0.00003 −0.00049 JC12 −0.06105 −0.08020 −0.00806 −0.00317 −0.00591 JC13 0.00689 −0.00550 −0.00180 0.00097 −0.00071 JC14 −0.01140 −0.01177 −0.00127 −0.00087 −0.00109 JC15 −0.00738 −0.00913 −0.00132 −0.00049 −0.00140 Zoige grassland flat area JC07 −0.00979 −0.00769 −0.00141 −0.00036 −0.00106 JC08 −0.01227 −0.00978 −0.00139 −0.00054 −0.00108 JC09 −0.00509 −0.00699 −0.00105 −0.00019 −0.00072 JC18 −0.00633 −0.00404 −0.00026 −0.00027 −0.00023 JC20 −0.00226 −0.00365 −0.00025 0.00047 0.00013 JC21 −0.00682 −0.00525 −0.00085 −0.00006 −0.00050 JC23 0.02906 0.02519 −0.00020 −0.00146 −0.00174 JC25 −0.01300 −0.01246 0.00059 0.00159 0.00054 Southern high mountain area JC27 −0.00693 −0.00801 −0.00164 −0.00074 −0.00089 JC45 −0.01602 −0.01501 −0.00225 −0.00110 −0.00152 JC46 −0.00171 −0.00161 −0.00056 −0.00049 −0.00015 JC47 −0.00404 0.00251 −0.00026 0.00073 −0.00011 White River valley area JC28 −0.00296 0.00423 −0.00203 0.00027 −0.00048 JC30 −0.00121 0.00300 −0.00141 0.00004 −0.00026 JC31 −0.00283 −0.00263 −0.00075 0.00112 0.00040 JC34 −0.00103 −0.00114 −0.00006 0.00035 0.00036 JC37 −0.00468 −0.00529 −0.00122 −0.00049 −0.00048 JC39 −0.00331 −0.00417 −0.00097 −0.00041 −0.00038 JC41 −0.00862 −0.00834 −0.00100 −0.00080 −0.00064 JC44 0.00253 −0.00394 −0.00101 −0.00027 −0.00054 Note: In the table, b represents the Sen's slope estimate derived from the M-K test, z denotes the slope value from linear regression (LRM). Cells shaded in gray indicate negative values (i.e. declining trends). 
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