摘要:
本文以全球发达国家近100年的铅消费历史为研究基础,剖析了美国、英国、日本等典型国家的铅消费轨迹,拟合了典型国家人均铅消费量的曲线方程,发现其都具有“S”形消费规律.在此规律基础上,标定了铅消费三个关键点:起飞点、转折点、零增长点,并给出了各个关键点与产业结构、城市化、汽车工业发展之间的内涵解释.运用“S”形消费规律,对中国未来20年的铅需求进行预测,预测了中国铅需求峰值位置,及对应的铅需求量,预测结果显示:2022年前后中国铅需求达到峰值,届时铅需求量约为590万吨,人均铅需求量为4.13 kg,随后铅消费开始缓慢下降.本文在中长期尺度上对中国铅需求进行定量预测,为我国未来铅资源开发规模与冶炼产业结构调整提供宏观背景和依据.
关键词:
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铅
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消费规律
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“S”形
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需求预测
Abstract:
This paper,taking the global lead consumption of the developed countries in the past 100 years or so as the research foundation,analyzes the lead consumption trajectory of several typical countries such as the USA,The UK and Japan,and fits some curve equations for lead consumption per capita in typical countries,all of which follow the "S"-shaped consumption law.Based on this law,this paper calibrates three key points in the lead consumption curve,i.e.,the take-off point,the turning point,and the zero-growth point,and explains the connotation between these key points and industrial structure,urbanization,and auto industry development.Using the "S"-shaped consumption law,this paper forecasts China's lead demand in the upcoming 20 years,and predicts China's lead demand peak and the corresponding demand.The results show that the peak of China's lead demand will be around the year 2022 when the lead demand is about 5.9 million tons and lead demand per capita is 4.13 kg,and then the lead consumption will begin to slow down.In this paper,China's lead demand is quantitatively predicted at the medium-and long-term scale,which provides the macro background and basis for China's lead resource industrial structure adjustment in the future.
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