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摘要: 镍是全球能源低碳转型所需的关键金属之一。近年来受资源保护、地缘政治冲突、突发事件等的影响, 镍供应风险随时可能发生。因此, 了解不同国家供应危机的传播过程和影响强度, 对于贸易国来说非常重要。为了探讨这一问题, 我们使用2020 年的数据构建了全球镍矿贸易网络, 并在此基础上建立了级联失效模型。因此, 本文不仅模拟了供应风险在贸易网络中的传播过程, 而且导出了一个雪崩网络用来分析危机传播动力学的结构特征。结果表明: (1)影响供应危机传播过程动力学的一个决定性参数r=7 时, 不同国家镍矿供应风险雪崩规模之间的差异性能够良好体现。(2)不同国家发生供应风险时, 出口量最大的国家不一定影响最多的国家。(3)只有菲律宾的供应短缺能引发中国的镍矿供应危机。(4)在级联过程中, 间接链路在风险的传播中起着关键作用。Abstract: Nickel is a key metal in the global energy transition to low carbon. In recent years, nickel supply risks have occurred periodically due to resource protection, geopolitical conflicts, and emergencies. Therefore, it is important for trading countries to understand the transmission process and impact intensity of supply crises in various countries. To explore this issue, we constructed a global nickel mining trade network and a cascade failure model using data from 2020. This study simulated the transmission process of supply risk in the nickel ore trade network and derived an avalanche network to analyze the structural characteristics of crisis transmission dynamics. The results show that: (1) when r (a decisive parameter affecting the dynamics of the supply crisis propagation process) is equal to seven, the difference in the avalanche scale of a nickel supply crisis in various countries can be well reflected. (2) When a supply crisis occurs in various countries, those countries with the highest exports do not necessarily have the strongest influence. (3) Only a shortage in the Philippines could trigger a nickel supply crisis in China. (4) In the cascade process, indirect links play a key role in crisis propagation.
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Key words:
- nickel mining trade /
- supply crisis /
- crisis propagation /
- complex network /
- cascade failure
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