Supply Risk Analysis of Beryllium in China
-
摘要: 铍在航空航天、国防和一些特殊领域具有不可替代性, 是关乎国家安全和高端制造业的关键性矿产之一。本文从铍资源分布、供应和需求等角度出发, 分析了全球资源供需格局, 并基于产业链视角剖析了中国铍资源的供应、产业等风险。研究结果显示, 我国铍资源禀赋较差, 未来供应增长潜力有限, 不能满足未来需求的快速增长; 高端铍产品技术存在短板, 严重依赖进口; 全球铍资源的供应链、产业链呈现高度垄断特征, 安全风险高。基于未来安全风险, 本文从增强战略储备、拓展进口来源、加大科技攻关三个方面提出针对性建议, 为我国铍产业链安全供应提供参考。Abstract: Beryllium is an irreplaceable metal in aerospace, defense, and other specialized fields. It is one of the key minerals related to national security and high-end manufacturing. This study analyzed the global supply and demand pattern of beryllium resources from the perspective of distribution, supply, and demand, and analyzed the supply and industrial risks of beryllium resources in China from the perspective of the industrial chain. The results showed that China’s beryllium resource endowment is poor, and that the future supply growth potential is limited and thus will not be able to meet the rapid growth in demand in the future. There are shortcomings in high-end beryllium product technology, which depend heavily on imports. The global supply chain and industrial chain of beryllium resources are characterized by a high level of monopoly and a high security risk. Considering the future safety risk, targeted suggestions are proposed based on the three aspects of strengthening the strategic reserve, expanding import sources, and increasing scientific and technological breakthroughs. Moreover, references are provided for the safe supply of the beryllium industrial chain in China.
-
Key words:
- beryllium /
- beryllium industry chain /
- supply risk /
- trade
-
-
MBA-Lib. 2011. 赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数[EB/OL]. [2011-01-13]. https://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/%E8%B5%AB%E5%B8%8C%E6%9B%BC%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0.
安泰科. 2014. 2014 年有色金属市场发展报告[R]. 北京: 安泰科咨询研究部.
安泰科. 2016. 2016 年有色金属市场发展报告[R]. 北京: 安泰科咨询研究部.
安泰科. 2017. 2017 年有色金属市场发展报告[R]. 北京: 安泰科咨询研究部.
安泰科. 2018. 2018 年有色金属市场发展报告[R]. 北京: 安泰科咨询研究部.
安泰科. 2020. 2020 年有色金属市场发展报告[R]. 北京: 安泰科咨询研究部.
安泰科. 2021. 2021 年有色金属市场发展报告[R]. 北京: 安泰科咨询研究部.
曾航, 刘羽, 陶旭骏.2014. 移动的帝国: 日本移动互联网兴衰启示录[M]. 杭州: 浙江大学出版社.
丁孝禹, 李浩, 罗来马, 黄丽枚, 罗广南, 昝祥, 朱晓勇, 吴玉程. 2013. 国际热核试验堆第一壁材料的研究进展[J]. 机械工程材料, 37(11): 6-11.
黄健柏, 孙芳. 2020. 中国稀有轻金属关键性动态评估--以锂和铍为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 29(4): 879-888.
黄群慧, 贺俊. 2013. “第三次工业革命”与中国经济发展战略调整--技术经济范式转变的视角[J]. 中国工业经济, (1): 5-18.
李娜, 高爱红, 王小宁. 2019. 全球铍资源供需形势及建议[J]. 中国矿业, 28(4): 69-73.
李笑, 刘志中, 王涛, 荣福杰, 常博文. 2021. 铍及铍铝合金的研究及发展[C]//2021 中国铸造活动周论文集: 66-71.
李欣. 2019. 高强铝合金的发展及其材料的制备加工技术[J]. 内燃机与配件, (22): 89-90.
联合国贸易统计数据库. 2022. UN Comtrade[DB/OL]. [2022-08-24]. https://comtrade.un.org/db/dqQuickQuery.aspx.
梁飞, 赵汀, 王登红, 刘超, 王安建. 2018. 中国铍资源供需预测与发展战略[J]. 中国矿业, 27(11): 6-10, 17.
林博磊, 尹丽文, 崔荣国, 李冰心, 徐桂芬. 2018. 全球铍资源分布及供需格局[J]. 国土资源情报, (1): 13-17.
刘劲松, 高丽丽. 2022. 美国铍矿产业供需格局及产业政策 分析[J]. 中国矿业, 31(3): 31-36.
山澤逸平, 平田章.1991. 先進諸国の産業調整と発展途上 国[M]. 東京: 勝美印刷株式会社.
王仁财, 邢佳韵, 彭浩. 2014. 美国铍资源战略启示[J]. 中国矿业, 23(10): 21-24.
王伟. 2014. 铍铜合金的生产和应用前景分析[J]. 有色金属加工, 43(2): 9-12.
许德美, 秦高梧, 李峰, 王战宏, 钟景明, 何季麟, 何力军. 2014. 国内外铍及含铍材料的研究进展[J]. 中国有色金属学报, 24(5): 1212-1223.
许秀婷, 教镇渤, 海国泉, 杨雨, 李军丽, 滕莹雪. 2021. 铍矿产业发展现状[J]. 新疆有色金属, 44(1): 4-8.
赵云鹏, 曾福明, 周志勇, 成志忠, 孙蕾. 2016. 新型铝合金的发展及其在密封舱结构上的工程应用[J]. 载人航天, 22(3): 302-307.
郑京淑, 李佳. 2007. “后雁形模式”与东亚贸易结构的变化[J]. 市场论坛, (3): 31-34.
郑莉芳, 王晓刚, 岳丽娜, 黄俊忠, 钟景明. 2021. 稀有轻金属铍及其合金的应用进展[J]. 稀有金属, 45(4): 475-483.
中华人民共和国海关总署. 2022. 海关统计数据在线平台[DB/OL]. [2022-10-08]. http://43.248.49.97.
Antaike. 2014. The development of nonferrous metals market report in 2014[R]. Beijing: Beijing Antaike Consulting and Research Department(in Chinese).
Antaike. 2016. The development of nonferrous metals market report in 2016[R]. Beijing: Beijing Antaike Consulting and Research Department(in Chinese).
Antaike. 2017. The development of nonferrous metals market report in 2017[R]. Beijing: Beijing Antaike Consulting and Research Department(in Chinese).
Antaike. 2018. The development of nonferrous metals market report in 2018[R]. Beijing: Beijing Antaike Consulting and Research Department(in Chinese).
Antaike. 2020. The development of nonferrous metals market report in 2020[R]. Beijing: Beijing Antaike Consulting and Research Department(in Chinese).
Antaike. 2021. The development of nonferrous metals market report in 2021[R]. Beijing: Beijing Antaike Consulting and Research Department(in Chinese).
DING Xiao-yu, LI Hao, LUO Lai-ma, HUANG Li-mei, LUO Guang-nan, ZAN Xiang, ZHU Xiao-yong, WU Yu-cheng. 2013. Progress in research of international thermonuclear experimental reactor first wall materials[J]. Materials of Mechanical Engineering, 37(11): 6-11(in Chinese with English abstract).
HUANG Jian-bai, SUN Fang. 2020. Dynamic criticality assessment of rare light metals in China: Case study of lithium and beryllium[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 29(4): 879-888(in Chinese with English abstract).
HUANG Qun-hui, HE Jun. 2013. “The Third Industrial Revolution” and the adjustment of China’s economic strategy--Transformation of techno-economic paradigm[J]. China Industrial Economics, (1): 5-18(in Chinese with English abstract).
LI Na, GAO Ai-hong, WANG Xiao-ning. 2019. Global beryllium supply and demand trends and its enlightenment[J]. China Mining Magazine, 28(4): 69-73(in Chinese with English abstract).
LI Xiao, LIU Zhi-zhong, WANG Tao, RONG Fu-jie, CHANG Bo-wen. 2021. Research and development of beryllium and beryllium aluminum alloys[C]//Collection of Essays on Chinese Foundry Activities Week: 66-71(in Chinese with English abstract).
LI Xin. 2019. Development of high strength aluminum alloy and its material preparation and processing technology[J]. Internal Combustion Engine & Parts, (22): 89-90(in Chinese).
LIANG Fei, ZHAO Ting, WANG Deng-hong, LIU Chao, WANG An-jian. 2018. Supply and demand forecast and development strategy of beryllium resources in China[J]. China Mining Magazine, 27(11): 6-10(in Chinese with English abstract).
LIN Bo-lei, YIN Li-wen, CUI Rong-guo, LI Bing-xin, XU Gui-fen. 2018. Global beryllium resources distribution and supply and demand pattern[J]. Land and Resources Information, (1): 13-17(in Chinese with English abstract).
LIU Jin-song, GAO Li-li. 2022. Analysis on the supply and demand pattern and industrial policy of beryllium mine industry in the United States[J]. China Mining Magazine, 31(3): 31-36(in Chinese with English abstract).
MBA-Lib. 2011. Herfindahl-Hirschman Index[EB/OL]. [2011-01-13]. https://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/%E8%B5%AB%E5%B8%8C%E6%9B%BC%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0(in Chinese).
MIYAMOTO M, SUGIMOTO Y, NISHIJIMA D, BALDWIN M J, DOERNER R P, ZALOZNIK A, KIM J H, NAKAMICHI M. 2021. Comparative study of surface modification and D retention between beryllium and beryllides under high flux plasma exposure[J]. Nuclear Materials and Energy, 27: 101014.
United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Databases. 2022. UN Comtrade [DB/OL]. [2022-08-24]. https://comtrade.un.org/db/ dqQuickQuery.aspx.
USGS (U. S. Geological Survey). 1998. Mineral Commodity Summaries [EB/OL]. [2021-10-12]. https://d9-wret.s3.us-w est-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pu bs/beryllium/100398.pdf.
USGS (U. S. Geological Survey). 2000. Mineral Commodity Summaries [EB/OL]. [2021-10-12]. https://d9-wret.s3.uswest-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineralpubs/beryllium/100300.pdf.
USGS (U. S. Geological Survey). 2011. Mineral Commodity Summaries [EB/OL]. [2021-10-12]. https://d9-wret.s3.us-w est-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pu bs/beryllium/mcs-2011-beryl.pdf.
USGS (U. S. Geological Survey). 2013. Mineral Commodity Summaries [EB/OL]. [2021-10-12]. https://d9-wret.s3.us-w est-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pu bs/beryllium/mcs-2013-beryl.pdf.
USGS (U. S. Geological Survey). 2014. Mineral Commodity Summaries [EB/OL]. [2021-10-12]. https://d9-wret.s3.us-w est-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pu bs/beryllium/mcs-2014-beryl.pdf.
USGS (U. S. Geological Survey). 2015. Mineral Commodity Summaries [EB/OL]. [2021-10-12]. https://d9-wret.s3.us-w est-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pu bs/beryllium/mcs-2015-beryl.pdf.
USGS (U. S. Geological Survey). 2016. Mineral Commodity Summaries [EB/OL]. [2021-10-12]. https://d9-wret.s3.us-w est-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pu bs/beryllium/mcs-2016-beryl.pdf.
USGS (U. S. Geological Survey). 2017. Mineral Commodity Summaries [EB/OL]. [2021-10-12]. https://d9-wret.s3.us-w est-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pu bs/beryllium/mcs-2017-beryl.pdf.
USGS (U. S. Geological Survey). 2018. Minerals yearbook beryllium ([ADVANCE RELEASE])[EB/OL]. [2021-10-12]. https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/atoms/files/myb1-2018-beryl.pdf.
USGS (U. S. Geological Survey). 2019. Mineral Commodity summaries (Beryllium)[EB/OL]. [2019-02-12]. https://d9-wret. s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3f s-public/atoms/files/mcs-2019-beryl.pdf.
USGS (U. S. Geological Survey). 2020. Mineral Commodity summaries (Beryllium)[EB/OL]. [2020-01-15]. https://pubs. usgs. gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-beryllium.pdf.
USGS (U. S. Geological Survey). 2021. Mineral Commodity summaries (Beryllium)[EB/OL]. [2021-01-15]. https://pubs. usgs. gov/periodicals/mcs2021/mcs2021-beryllium.pdf.
USGS (U. S. Geological Survey). 2022. Mineral Commodity summaries (Beryllium)[EB/OL]. [2022-01-15]. https://pubs. usgs. gov/periodicals/mcs2022/mcs2022-beryllium.pdf.
WANG Ren-cai, XING Jia-yun, PENG Hao. 2014. Enlightenment of United States’ beryllium resources strategy[J]. China Mining Magazine, 23(10): 21-24(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG Wei. 2014. Production status and application prospect of beryllium copper alloy[J]. Nonferrous Metals Processing, 43(2): 9-12(in Chinese with English abstract).
WELCH L, RINGEN K, BINGHAM E, DEMENT J, TAKARO T, MCGOWAN W, CHEN An-na, QUINN P. 2004. Screening for beryllium disease among construction trade workers at department of energy nuclear sites[J]. American Journal of Industrial Medicine, 46: 207-218.
XU De-mei, QIN Gao-wu, LI Feng, WANG Zhan-hong, ZHONG Jing-ming, HE Ji-lin, HE Li-jun. 2014. Advances in beryllium and beryllium-containing materials[J]. The Chinese Journal of Nonferrous Metals, 24(5): 1212-1223(in Chinese with English abstract).
XU Xiu-ting, JIAO Zhen-bo, HAI Guo-quan, YANG Yu, LI Jun-li, TENG Ying-xue. 2021. Development status of beryllium mining industry[J]. Xinjiang Non-ferrous Metals, 44(1): 4-8(in Chinese).
YAMAZAWA I, HIRATA A.1991. Developed countries' trade policies toward developing countries[M]. Tokyo: Asian Economic Research Institute(in Japanese).
ZENG Hang, LIU Yu, TAO Xu-jun.2014. Mobile empire: The apocalypse of the rise and fall of the mobile internet in Japan[M]. Hangzhou: Zhejiang University Press(in Chinese).
ZHAO Yun-peng, ZENG Fu-ming, ZHOU Zhi-yong, CHENG Zhi-zhong, SUN Lei. 2016. Development and potential applications of advanced aluminum alloy in spacecraft pressurized cabin[J]. Manned Spaceflight, 22(3): 302-307(in Chinese with English abstract).
ZHENG Jing-shu, LI Jia. 2007. "Post-flying geese pattern" and the change of trade structure in East Asia[J]. Market Forum, (3): 31-34(in Chinese).
ZHENG Li-fang, WANG Xiao-gang, YUE Li-na, HUANG Jun-zhong, ZHONG Jing-ming. 2021. Progress in application of rare light metal beryllium and its alloys[J]. Chinese Journal of Rare Metals, 45(4): 475-483(in Chinese with English abstract).
-
计量
- 文章访问数: 152
- PDF下载数: 12
- 施引文献: 0