Study on the Recycling Potential of Iron Secondary Resources in China Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis
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摘要: 新时代背景下, 增强铁资源二次循环利用率, 是中国钢铁工业摆脱国外铁矿石依赖, 同时实现绿色低碳高质量发展的重要途经。为揭示铁资源二次回收规模, 本文利用动态物质流分析(Material Flow Analysis, MFA), 对中国铁循环规律、社会存量和二次资源潜力进行了分析。结果显示: ①国内铁矿石供应不足, 国外铁矿石进口为中国铁循环的重要来源。建国以来, 中国累计净进口铁矿石中的铁物质达90.7 亿t, 实际铁资源消费量累计为120.2 亿t。②2021 年中国铁社会存量达97.9 亿t, 人均铁社会存量也达到了 6.9 t/人, 但人均存量尚未达到发达国家平均水平, 未来, 铁社会存量会进一步增加, 同时也将继续刺激铁矿石资源的大量消耗。③建国以来, 中国铁资源理论报废量持续上升, 累计达22.2 亿t。到2050 年, 中国铁二次资源报废量达4.4 亿～5.6 亿t, 铁社会存量规模也将达141.0 亿～199.9 亿t, 充足的铁二次资源规模是缓解初级供应短缺的重要基础条件。基于研究结果, 中国应该加快构建旧废钢回收体系, 引导新型全废钢电弧炉冶炼工艺的开发设计, 全面提高铁二次资源循环利用效率。同时, 以“双碳”目标为契机, 倒逼落后产能退出市场, 化解产能过剩矛盾。Abstract: Due to the high dependence on foreign iron ore, enhancing the recycling utilization rate of secondary iron resources is critical in China. At the same time, improving low-carbon transformation and high-quality development is also an effective strategy. In this study, dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) was applied to characterize the available scale of secondary iron resources and the iron stock and flow in China from 1949 to 2021 were analyzed. The results show that: ① Domestic iron ore and imported resources are the main source of the Chinese iron cycle. The cumulative net import of iron material and iron ore amounted to 9.07 billion tons and the actual consumption of iron resources in China from 1949 to 2021 was 12.02 billion tons. ② In 2021, China’s iron stock had reached 9.79 billion tons, and the per capita stock of iron reached 6.9 tons/person. However, the per capita stock has not reached the average level of developed countries. Therefore, the iron stock will increase further, and will continue to stimulate the massive consumption of iron ore resources. ③ In recent years, the theoretical volume of iron scrap resources has continued to increase, reaching a total of 2.22 billion tons. By 2050, it is predicted that the scrap capacity of secondary iron resources will reach 440–560 million tons, and the scale of iron stock will reach 14.10–19.99 billion tons in China. Sufficient secondary iron resources are essential to alleviating the primary supply gap. The research results indicate that strategies are required to accelerate the construction of secondary iron resource recycling systems, guide the development and design of new all-scrap electric arc furnace smelting processes, and comprehensively improve the recycling efficiency of secondary iron resources. At the same time, the “double carbon” target is also an opportunity to force backward production capacity out of the market to resolve the problem of overcapacity.
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Key words:
- iron /
- material flow analysis /
- China /
- social stock /
- secondary resources
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