Simulation of land use change in oasis of arid areas based on Landsat images from 1990 to 2019
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摘要: 探明西北干旱区典型人工绿洲阿拉尔垦区的土地利用变化及未来发展情况,为类似地区土地利用变化的调控和管理提供参考。将逐年各月份影像进行多时相合成后,运用支持向量机分类方法获得逐年土地利用分类图,从面积变化、类型转化、空间动态变化3方面进行土地利用变化分析,采用CA(cellular automaton)-Markov模型模拟2050和2080年土地利用变化情况,基于累积距平法和通径分析方法探究其突变情况和驱动因素。研究结果表明: 1990—2019年,阿拉尔垦区耕地、园地、水体和建设用地的面积呈增加趋势,其中耕地和园地面积的增加主要是由塔里木河沿岸区域之外的未利用地转换而来。至2080年,垦区东北和东南部的未利用地将被逐渐开垦,耕地、园地和建设用地的面积将大幅增加。阿拉尔垦区土地利用类型面积在2005年发生转折性变化,耕地、园地和建设用地的面积急剧增加; 垦区土地利用变化的主要驱动因素为总人口、农业生产总值和棉花价格。研究结论: 在未来土地开发利用过程中,应当制定可持续发展的耕地开发政策,严格控制建设用地面积,构建合理的土地利用结构。Abstract: This study aims to explore the land use change and its future development trend in the Aral reclamation area, a typical artificial oasis in the arid region in northwest China and to provide a reference for the regulation and management of land use change in similar areas. After the multi-temporal synthesis of monthly images of each year, annual land use classification maps were obtained using the support vector machine method. Then, the land use change was analyzed from the aspects of area change, type transformation, and spatial dynamic change. Finally, the cellular automaton (CA)-Markov model was used to simulate the land use change in 2050 and 2080, and the sudden changes and their driving factors were explored using the cumulative departure method and the path analysis. The results of this study are as follows. During 1990—2019, the area of arable land, garden land, water bodies, and construction land in the Aral reclamation area showed an increasing trend. Among them, the arable land and garden land increased in area mainly due to the conversion of unused land outside the areas along the Tarim River. By 2080, the unused land in the northeastern and southeastern parts of the reclamation area will be gradually reclaimed. As a result, arable land, garden land, and construction land will significantly increase. The area of various types of land use in the Aral reclamation reached a turning point in 2005, showing a sharp increase in the area of arable land, garden land, and building land. This was mainly driven by total population, gross agricultural product, and cotton prices. It can be concluded that it is necessary to develop policies on the sustainable development of arable land, to strictly control the area of construction land, and to construct a reasonable land use structure in future land development and utilization.
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Key words:
- land use change /
- dynamic simulation of land space /
- long time series /
- driving factors
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