A study on hidden risks of glacial lake outburst floods based on relief amplitude: A case study of eastern Shishapangma
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摘要: 地形起伏度作为反映斜坡地质敏感性的重要指标,对评价冰湖溃决隐患具有重要意义。针对藏南希夏邦马峰东部冰湖集中区,基于国产高分卫星数据及ASTER GDEM V3数据,在1：5万比例尺下解译获取冰湖现状信息,优选均值变点法实现地形起伏度特征提取,在此基础上开展相关性分析,实现冰湖溃决隐患评价分级。结果表明: ①在1：5万比例尺下地势起伏度的最佳采样单元为21x21(采样单元面积为0.39 km2),研究区总体以小起伏山地为主; ②冰湖起伏度特征可分为单一型、组合型及跨级型3类,对应溃决隐患等级依次升高; ③全区1 020处冰湖中,溃决隐患为低、中、高级别的数量分别占总体的97.35%,1.77%和0.88%,实地验证结果符合预期。研究揭示了以地形起伏度作为冰湖溃决隐患评价指标的现实意义,可为同类地区开展相关研究提供理论参考。Abstract: As an important indicator reflecting the geological sensitivity of slopes, relief amplitude is significant for assessing hidden risks of glacial lake outburst floods. This study obtained information on the current status of glacial lakes in the glacial lake concentrated area in the eastern Shishapangma, southern Tibet through interpretation of the GF-2 and ASTER GDEM V3 data on a scale of 1：50 000. The feature extraction of relief amplitude was conducted using the mean change point method. Then, this study conducted a correlation analysis, achieving the hidden risk rating of glacial lake outburst floods. The results are as follows: ① On a scale of 1：50 000, the optimal sampling unit of relief amplitude is 21x21 (0.39 km2). ② The relief amplitude characteristics of glacial lakes include the single, combined, and cross-level types, of the which the risk grade increases successively. ③ Among 1 020 glacial lakes in the study area, the number of glacial lakes with low-, medium-, and high-grade hidden risks of outburst floods accounts for 97.35%, 1.77%, and 0.88%, respectively. This study revealed the practical significance of relief amplitude as an assessment index for the hidden risks of glacial lake outburst floods. Furthermore, this study can provide theoretical references for related studies of similar areas.
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