Simulation and development mode suggestions of the spatial pattern of "ecology-agriculture-construction" land in Jiangsu Province
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摘要: 为因地制宜地选择适合江苏省的区域发展模式,综合运用Logistic,Auto-Logistic和SBS-Logistic这3种回归方法,识别江苏省土地利用格局演化的驱动力,进而运用Markov-CLUES模型模拟了江苏省2030年4种情景下的“生态-农业-建设“用地空间格局。结果表明: ①3种回归方法精度优劣顺序为Auto-Logistic>SBS-Logistic>Logistic,Auto-Logistic回归下3种土地利用类型的接收者操作特性检验值均大于0.75; Markov-CLUES模型在2005—2018年江苏省土地利用格局验证模拟中效果较好,精度评定Kappa值为0.758。②自然增长情景保障了“三圈““四沿“地区的快速发展,但是部分河流缩窄,粮食安全受到威胁,发展可持续性较弱; 生态保护情景通过大力开展河渠及环湖地区生态环境整治,使得流域环境得到明显改善; 耕地保护情景下粮食主产区的优质耕地得到有效保护,苏北和苏中地区的耕地面积增长明显; 生态与耕地双保护情景下的发展可持续性较强,建设用地的无序扩张受到了明显限制,但短期内建设用地需求与供给矛盾较为突出。③太湖与淮河流域、长江湿地保护区域和沿海区域所属县区宜采取生态保护情景发展模式; 苏北、苏中平原宜采取耕地保护情景发展模式; 苏南五市宜采取生态与耕地双保护情景发展模式; 苏中地区的扬州市和泰州市由于沿江开发战略的进一步实施,可采取自然增长情景发展模式。研究揭示了江苏省“生态-农业-建设“用地空间格局演化的时空规律,不同情景下的用地格局模拟可为江苏省实现因地制宜的区域发展模式提供决策支持,有助于推进江苏省形成生态、农业和建设用地耦合协调发展的国土空间格局。
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关键词:
- SBS-Logistic回归 /
- Auto-Logistic回归 /
- CLUE-S模型 /
- 区域发展模式 /
- "生态-农业-建设"用地 /
- 江苏省
Abstract: This study aims to assist Jiangsu Province in selecting the regional development modes suitable for its local conditions. To this end, this study identified the driving factors in the evolution of the land use pattern in Jiangsu Province by comprehensively using three regression methods (i.e., Logistic, Auto-Logistic, and SBS-Logistic). Then, this study simulated the spatial pattern of ecology-agriculture-construction land in Jiangsu Province in 2030 under four scenarios using the Markov-CLUES model. The results are as follows. ①The accuracy of the three regression methods was in the order of Auto-Logistic> SBS-Logistic > Logistic. The ROC values of the three land use types obtained using the Auto-Logistic regression method were all over 0.75. The Markov-CLUES model performed well in the verification simulation of the land use pattern in Jiangsu Province during 2005—2018, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.758 according to the accuracy evaluation. ②The rapid development in the ”Three Circles“ and ”Four Lines“ areas will be guaranteed under the scenario of natural growth in 2030. However, some rivers will narrow, threatening food security and leading to weak development sustainability. For the scenario of ecological protection, the environment of river canals and areas surrounding lakes will be greatly improved by controlling and managing ecology. For the scenario of cultivated land protection, high-quality cultivated land in the main grain-producing areas will be effectively protected, and the cultivated land area in northern and central Jiangsu will obviously increase. The dual protection of both ecology and cultivated land will allow for strong sustainable development and the effective restriction of the disorderly expansion of construction land in 2030. However, the contradiction between demand and supply of construction land will be prominent in a short term. ③It is advisable to adopt the development mode of protecting ecology in the Taihu Lake, the Huai River basin, the conservation areas of Yangtze River wetland, and coastal areas, to adopt the development mode of protecting cultivated land in the Subei and Suzhong plains, and to adopt the development mode of protecting both ecology and cultivated land in the five cities in southern Jiangsu. Given the further implementation of the development strategy along the Yangtze River, the development mode of natural growth can be adopted in Yangzhou and Taizhou cities in central Jiangsu Province. This study revealed the spatio-temporal evolutionary laws of the spatial pattern of ecology-agriculture-construction land in Jiangsu Province. The simulation of the spatial pattern under various scenarios will provide decision support for Jiangsu Province to achieve regional development modes suitable for local conditions and assist Jiangsu Province in forming the spatial pattern of land where ecology-agriculture-construction land couples mutually and develops in a coordinated manner. -
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