Spatial and temporal dynamics of drought in Xinjiang and its response to climate change
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摘要: 为实现对新疆地区旱情的动态连续监测,基于温度植被干旱指数(temperature vegetation dryness index, TVDI),辅以Sen斜率法、重标极差法及偏相关分析法探究了新疆2001—2020年TVDI时空动态、变化趋势、未来持续状态及季节性降水、气温对TVDI的影响。结果表明: ①TVDI最小值出现在天山山脉以北及昆仑山脉地区,TVDI值在0.57以下,属轻旱等级,塔里木盆地和准噶尔盆地TVDI在0.86以上,属特旱等级; ②春季TVDI呈减小趋势,减小速率为0.001 3/a,夏季TVDI增加速率为0.001 4/a,秋季TVDI增加速率最大(增加速率为0.002 0/a),冬季TVDI增加速率最小(增加速率为0.000 8/a); ③春、冬季未来一段时间内大部分区域TVDI将呈增加趋势,夏、秋季TVDI将在未来一段时间内大部分像元呈减小趋势; ④春、冬季TVDI与降水以负相关为主,夏、秋季TVDI与降水以正相关为主,春季TVDI与气温以正相关为主,夏季TVDI与气温的相关性从西向东递减,相关性从负相关逐渐变成正相关,秋、冬季TVDI与气温以负相关为主。Abstract: This study aims to achieve the dynamic and continuous monitoring of drought in Xinjiang. Based on the temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI), as well as the Sen’s slope trend analysis, R/S, and partial correlation analysis, this study analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics, changing trends, and future sustainable state of TVDI and the influences of seasonal precipitation and temperature on TVDI in Xinjiang during the period from 2001 to 2020. The results are as follows. ① The northern Tianshan Mountains and the Kunlun Mountains showed minimum TVDI values of less than 0.57, indicating light drought. The Tarim and Junggar basins showed TVDI values of greater than 0.86, indicating extraordinary drought. ② The TVDI values in spring decreased at a rate of 0.001 3/a. By contrast, the TVDI values in summer, autumn, and winter increased at a rate of 0.001 4/a, 0.002 0/a, and 0.000 8/a, respectively. Therefore, the increased amplitude of the TVDI values was the highest in autumn and the lowest in winter. ③ In the near future, the TVDI values in most regions of Xinjiang will increase in spring and winter, while the pixel quantity of most TVDI values will increase in summer and autumn. ④ The TVDI values were mainly negatively correlated with precipitation in spring and winter and were positively correlated with precipitation in summer and autumn. The TVDI values were mainly positively correlated with temperature in spring and were negatively correlated with temperature in autumn and winter. Moreover, the TVDI values in summer had a decreased correlation with temperature from west to east, with the correlation gradually changing from a negative to a positive correlation.
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Key words:
- TVDI /
- temperature /
- precipitation /
- Xinjiang
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