摘要:
黄河流域生态环境脆弱,水土流失严重,诊断其生态安全状态及主要驱动因素对促进流域高质量发展具有重要意义。本研究利用鄂尔多斯市黄河流域旗县2010—2020年社会统计数据和遥感影像数据,选取19项评价指标,利用“压力—状态—响应”(press-state-response,PSR)模型建立黄河流域旗县生态安全评价指标框架,采用灰色关联度模型计算出关键驱动因素,并实现其后未来5 a生态安全演变趋势预测。结果显示: ①2010—2020年鄂尔多斯市黄河流域旗县达拉特旗、准格尔旗和鄂托克旗生态安全综合评价指数均呈现上升趋势,杭锦旗生态安全指数呈先上升后下降趋势,生态安全等级均波动于临界安全状态,说明该区域流域生态系统安全状况有所改善; ②研究区生态安全动态变化与区域人口数量、城镇化率、草地面积、水资源面积、恩格尔系数和第三产业比重变化有紧密联系; ③各旗县生态安全预测模型结果显示未来5 a该地区生态安全指数均呈现增长趋势。最后基于上述结果提出了相关政策建议,以期为鄂尔多斯市黄河流域生态管理及风险防控提供定量参考和决策依据。
Abstract:
The Yellow River basin has a weak eco-environment due to severe water-soil erosion. Research on ecological security state and primary driving factors holds great significance for the high-quality development of the basin. Based on the social statistical data and remote sensing data of counties/banners in Ordos in the basin from 2010 to 2020, this study established an ecological security index framework for these areas using the pressure-state-response (PSR) model by integrating 19 indices. Furthermore, this study calculated key driving factors using the gray relational model and forecast the ecological security evolution trend in the coming five years. The results are as follows: ① From 2010 to 2020, the comprehensive ecological security index of Dalad, Jungar, and Otog banners all showed a rising trend, while that of Hanggin Banner showed a downward trend following a rise. The ecological security level fluctuated around the critical state during this period. This result suggests an improvement in the ecological security of the basin; ② The dynamic change of ecological security in the study area was closely related to the changes in regional population, urbanization rate, grassland area, water resources area, Engel coefficient and proportion of tertiary industries; (iii) As indicated by the results of the ecological security forecast model of various counties/banners, the ecological security index of this area will show an upward trend in the coming five years. Finally, based on the above results, this study put forward relevant policies and suggestions, with a view to providing a quantitative reference and decision-making basis for ecological management and risk prevention and control of the Yellow River basin in Ordos.
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