Spatiotemporal changes of ecological quality and their driving factors in Zhengzhou City over the last 20 years
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摘要: 生态环境质量是地区发展水平的重要组成部分, 客观定量地对其进行长时序动态监测与分析, 可为城市可持续发展和生态环境建设提供科学依据。基于Landsat遥感影像, 通过主成分分析法构建遥感生态指数(remote sensing ecological index, RSEI)作为评价指标, 运用Sen+Mann-Kendall趋势分析、Hurst指数、地理探测器探究河南省郑州市2001—2020年生态环境质量时空变化特征以及各驱动因子影响程度。研究表明: ①2001—2020年间郑州市整体生态环境质量处于中等水平, 生态环境指数呈先下降再上升再下降趋势, 空间分布表现为东部平原低、西南山地丘陵高。除2010年受高温影响生态环境质量恶化面积大幅增加外, 区域总体生态环境质量以不变和轻微改善为主。②2001—2020年间郑州市生态环境质量变化趋势显著, 上升趋势区域占比56.34%, 下降趋势区域占比42.26%。结合Hurst指数, 东部生态环境质量下降趋势区域未来变化以持续性特征为主, 西南部生态环境质量上升趋势区域未来变化以反持续性特征为主。③驱动力分析表明, 2001—2020年间土地利用类型和人口密度是影响郑州市生态环境质量变化的主要因子, 其解释力强度明显高于其他因素。高程和年均降水等自然因素影响力逐渐减弱, 而反映城市化水平的夜间灯光指数影响力逐渐增强。研究可为郑州市生态环境评价与保护工作提供科学依据。
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关键词:
- 生态环境质量 /
- 遥感生态指数 /
- Sen+Mann-Kendall /
- Hurst指数 /
- 地理探测器
Abstract: Ecological quality is an important indicator of a regional development level. Objective, quantitative dynamic monitoring and analysis of long-term ecological quality can provide a scientific basis for urban sustainable development and ecological construction. Based on Landsat remote sensing images, this study constructed the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) as an evaluation index using principal component analysis. Accordingly, this study explored the spatiotemporal change characteristics of ecological quality in Zhengzhou from 2001 to 2020, as well as the extent of influence of various driving factors, using the Sen+Mann-Kendall trend analysis, the Hurst index, and geographical detectors. The results indicate that from 2001 to 2020, Zhengzhou maintained moderate ecological quality overall. The RSEI showed downward, upward, and then downward trends sequentially. Spatially, the eastern plains showed lower ecological quality, whereas the southwestern mountainous and hilly areas exhibited higher ecological quality. The regional ecological quality remained unchanged predominantly or saw slight improvements over these years except for 2010, when the area of zones with ecological quality deteriorating significantly increased due to high temperature. From 2001 to 2020, the ecological quality in Zhengzhou exhibited significant trends, with 56.34% of areas showing an upward trend and 42.26% exhibiting a downward trend. These results, along with the Hurst index, reveal that the downward trend in ecological quality in the eastern part is primarily characterized by sustainable changes in the future, while the upward trend in ecological quality in the southwestern partition is primarily characterized by anti-sustainable changes in the future. Driving force analysis indicates that over the 20 years, primary factors influencing changes in ecological quality in Zhengzhou included land use type and population density, whose explanatory power is significantly stronger than other factors. The impact of natural factors, such as elevation and average annual precipitation, has gradually diminished, while the influence of the night light index, which reflects the urbanization level, has progressively increased. The results of this study will provide a scientific basis for the evaluation and preservation of ecosystems in Zhengzhou.-
Key words:
- ecological quality /
- remote sensing ecological index /
- Sen-Mann-Kendall /
- Hurst index /
- geodetector
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