PRELIMINARY STUDY ON SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERN OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER TIBET PLATEAU DURING PAST MILLENNIUM
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摘要: 研究青藏高原地区过去千年气候变化的时空特征,对预测未来气候情景下该地区冰冻圈的变化及其水文-生态效应具有重要科学意义。基于15条反映青藏高原地区近千年气候变化的高分辨率重建序列,通过综合分析及经验正交函数(EOF)方法,进一步探讨了青藏高原地区过去千年气候变化的时空特征。综合重建序列显示:整体而言,青藏高原地区中世纪暖期(MWP)约持续到1450s,小冰期(LIA)约发生于1450-1870s,此后近百年来的温度在波动中逐渐升高;对比分析表明青藏高原地区MWP与20世纪前半叶的温暖幅度可比、也与其他北半球温度序列中同时期的气候特征相似,LIA较之我国中东部地区相对温暖。EOF分析结果揭示了过去千年典型气候特征(MWP、LIA及20世纪暖期等)在青藏高原的区域差异:对于MWP,其在高原东北部、中北部及西部地区约持续至1450s (其中约1250-1300s为冷波动),在喀喇昆仑及高原中东部地区约至13世纪初,高原南部诸多代用资料间接表明MWP约发生于11-15世纪(而在反映高原南部地区气候信息的第三主分量中MWP特征并不明显);对于LIA,高原东北部及西部地区的冷波动约为1450-1520s、1650-1750s、1780-1850s,喀喇昆仑地区的冷波动约为1450-1650s、1740-1780s、1820-1850s,高原南部、中东部及中北部地区的冷波动约为1580-1650s、1740-1780s (其中1670-1730s为相对暖期,并在喀喇昆仑地区也有所体现);对于近百年的全球显著升温过程,高原大部分地区均有记录,而南部与中东部地区的部分树轮年表则显示近几十年来夏季温度存在一定的下降趋势,这可能与全球变暖过程中不同季节(冬夏季节)温度变化的不一致性有关。Abstract: Researching the climate change during past millennium over Tibet Plateau (TP) plays a vital role in the prediction of cryosphere change in such region and its far-reaching influence under future warming climate. By 15 high resolution paleoclimate series reflecting the climate evolution during past millennium over TP, this paper aims to further study the spatiotemporal pattern of climate change during past millennium over TP. The comprehensive reconstruction of temperature by these 15 series indicates that, generally, over the past millennium, TP has been characterized by a prominent Medieval Warm Period (MWP, the period before~1450s), a moderate Little Ice Age (LIA, from~1450s to 1870s), and the increase of temperature since then (the abrupt drop of temperature around 1920s and 1970s were evidently). By comparison, the warmth of MWP over TP shows a good agreement with that during the first half of 20th century, and that in other reconstructions of temperature over the Northern Hemisphere; the LIA over TP is relatively warmer than that over eastern China. Moreover, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of these 15 series is carried out to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of climate change during past millennium over TP. It suggests that the three major "climate anomalies" during past millennium (MWP, LIA and post-industrial warming) have showed marked regional differences over sub-region of TP. The MWP lasts until~1450s in Northeast TP and Northern TP and Western TP (the period during 1250-1300s was a cold epoch),~13th century in Karakoram region and Eastern TP; lots of materials in Southern TP revealed that the MWP would occur during 11-15th century (while the PC3 of EOF analysis, reflecting the climate information in Southern TP, indicated that the warmth of MWP was not evidently in this region). During LIA, there were three cold epochs (i.e., 1450-1520s, 1650-1750s and 1780-1850s) in Northeast TP and Western TP, three cold epochs (i.e., 1450-1650s, 1740-1780s and 1820-1850s) in Karakoram region, two cold epochs (i.e., 1580-1650s and 1740-1780s) in Southern TP and Eastern TP and Northern TP (the period during 1670-1730s would be a warm epoch which was also evidently in Karakoram region). Last but not least, few tree ring records in southern TP and Eastern TP have showed a decrease of summer temperature against the notable increasing of global temperature, possibly attributing to the inconsistency of temperature change in different seasons (i.e., summer and winter) during global warming.
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Key words:
- past millennium /
- climate change /
- comprehensive analysis /
- spatiotemporal pattern /
- Tibet Plateau
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