REVIEW ON THE EVALUATION METHODS OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARD SUSCEPTIBILITY
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摘要:
我国地形地质条件复杂, 地质灾害多发, 人类各类工程地质活动加剧了地质灾害的发生与发展. 地质灾害预防与管理工作是保障人民生命与财产安全的前提与基础. 地质灾害易发性评价是地质灾害危险性评价和风险评价的前提, 也是地质灾害区划和防治工作的基础. 本文基于国内外地质灾害易发性的相关研究, 对地质灾害易发性概念、评价指标体系、权重计算方法和易发性评价模型进行分析总结, 并指出了地质灾害易发性评价中亟待解决的主要问题.
Abstract:The topographical and geological conditions in China are complicated, with frequent geological disasters, which have been aggravated by various human engineering geological activities. The prevention and management of geological disasters are the premise and foundation of ensuring the safety of people's lives and property. Geological disaster susceptibility evaluation is the premise of hazard evaluation and risk assessment, and the basis of geohazard zoning and prevention as well. Based on related researches on geological disaster susceptibility at home and abroad, the paper discusses the concept of geohazard susceptibility, evaluation index system, weight calculation method and evaluation model, and points out the main problems to be solved in geohazard susceptibility evaluation.
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Key words:
- geological hazard /
- susceptibility evaluation /
- evaluation index system /
- evaluation model /
- RS /
- GPS /
- GIS
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表 1 地质灾害易发性评价指标体系
Table 1. Evaluation index system of geological hazard susceptibility
一级指标 二级指标 地层岩性 地形地貌 孕灾因素指标 坡度 高程 水文地质 地震烈度 致灾因素指标 降雨 人类工程活动 分布密度 灾害现状指标 发生规模 发生频率 
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表 2 各评价方法选用参考表
Table 2. Reference for selection of evaluation methods
类型 评价方法 优势 局限性 适用范围 定性评价 层次分析法 主观性较小 需构造判断矩阵且指标多, 计算量大 研究区资料丰富且易得 模糊综合评价法 影响因子易量化 主观选择隶属函数, 需缩小区划网格 单体灾害点, 影响因子少 德尔菲法 简单便捷 具有明显的主观随意性 缺乏足够的资料, 长远规划或大趋势预测, 影响因素多 定量评价 证据权法 评价因子与滑坡灾害间的相关性易判断, 效果直观 所有影响因子必须拥有各自的独立性 环境稳定, 评价因子长期不变 信息量法 适合单元划分数量较大的研究区 不能体现各因子的差异性, 且需要较大数据量 研究区信息量丰富, 孕灾因素相互独立 随机森林模型 预测精度高, 抗拟合能力强, 对于高维度数据的泛化能力强 模型内部的运行较难人为操控, 不能不间断地输出值 适用于分类或回归问题, 不适用于需要高实时的场景 主成分分析法 指标选择容易, 在节省工作量的同时不会漏掉关键指标 需保证提取的主成分具有实际意义, 否则会造成过强的模糊性 有多个层次的综合评价 变异系数法 避免单位或平均数不同对两个或多个资料变异程度比较的影响, 减少权重的计算障碍 当平均值趋近于0时, 变异系数易受较大影响 数据标准化后平均值不接近于0的情况 贡献权重法 很好地揭示了地质灾害本底因子的贡献作用 将所有因子的重要性等同过于理想化 研究区资料丰富且易得
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