GEOHAZARD SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT BASED ON CF-LR MODEL FOR XINYANG CITY, HENAN PROVINCE
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摘要:
河南省信阳市位于我国地理南北分界线、气候分界线, 是地质灾害多发市, 地质灾害易发性评价对防灾减灾有重要的指导意义. 基于资料分析, 选取坡度、坡向、地形曲率、到水系距离、到断层距离、夜间灯光指数和植被指数共7个指标, 采用CF-LR模型, 对信阳市地质灾害易发性进行了评价. 结果表明, 信阳市地质灾害易发性程度划分为4类: 极高易发区(占全区面积11.39%)、高易发区(19.51%)、中易发区(14.20%)和低易发区(54.90%). 经合理性和准确性检验, 评价结果符合要求, 说明采用的CF-LR模型能够较为客观准确地评价信阳市地质灾害易发性.
Abstract:Xinyang City of Henan Province, located on the north-south boundary of both geography and climate of China, is prone to geological disasters. The assessment of geohazard susceptibility is of great guiding significance for disaster prevention and reduction. Based on the data analysis, 7 indexes including slope gradient, aspect, terrain curvature, distance to water system, distance to faults, nighttime light index and vegetation index are selected and the CF-LR model is used to assess the geohazard susceptibility in Xinyang City. The results show that the geohazard susceptibility in the area can be divided into four categories: extremely high-risk area(accounting for 11.39% of the total area), high-risk area (19.51%), medium-risk area (14.20%) and low-risk area (54.90%). The results are verified to meet the requirements of rationality and accuracy, indicating that the CF-LR model can objectively and accurately assess the geohazard susceptibility in Xinyang City.
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Key words:
- geohazard /
- susceptibility assessment /
- CF-LR model /
- Henan Province
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表 1 各评价指标确定性系数CF计算结果表
Table 1. Deterministic coefficient calculation results of each evaluation factor
评价因子 分类级别 类别面积/km2 灾害点/处 CF 坡度/（°） ＜5 15171.04 444 -0.3972 5~10 1578.6 295 0.7406 10~15 1039.5 113 0.5538 15~20 615.02 43 0.3059 20~25 282.99 13 -0.0536 25~30 108.3 4 -0.2392 30~35 30.78 2 0.2531 ＞35 4.35 0 -1.0000 坡向 平坦 543.99 4 -0.8486 北 4288.99 199 -0.0441 东 5092.53 273 0.0946 南 4341.31 192 -0.0889 西 4563.76 246 0.0996 地形曲率 ＜-0.5 2.01 0 -1.0000 -0.5~-0.2 130.68 15 0.5774 -0.2~-0.05 1046.05 157 0.6769 -0.05~0.05 16315.26 545 -0.3119 0.05~0.2 130.639 194 0.6735 ＞0.2 30.19 3 0.5118 到水系距离/m ＜100 1476.81 102 0.3010 100~200 1048.49 82 0.3827 200~300 1060.21 85 0.3979 300~400 1071.59 76 0.3193 400~500 1045.36 55 0.0822 ＞500 13225.06 514 -0.1952 到断层距离/km ＜0.5 1232.50 181 0.6715 0.5~1.5 1964.07 226 0.5806 1.5~3 1928.48 175 0.4681 3~5 1597.28 119 0.3520 5~8 1581.46 134 0.4303 ＞8 10623.43 79 -0.8461 夜间灯光指数 ＜0 13541.75 594 -0.0917 0~10 5188.53 306 0.1813 10~20 135.09 11 0.4072 20~30 44.83 3 0.2785 30~40 13.36 0 -1.0000 ＞40 4.00 0 -1.0000 NDVI ＜-0.1 1042.77 34 -0.3249 -0.1~0 6183.60 157 -0.4743 0~0.1 6105.38 433 0.3193 0.1~0.2 3139.82 242 0.3736 0.2~0.3 1319.34 40 -0.3723 ＞0.3 1136.31 8 -0.8543 
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表 2 评价指标间的相关性系数矩阵
Table 2. Correlation coefficient matrix of evaluation indexes
x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x1 1.000 -0.008 -0.144 0.123 -0.128 0.120 -0.078 x2 1.000 -0.004 0.001 0.019 -0.019 0.066 x3 1.000 0.083 -0.123 0.026 -0.123 x4 1.000 0.177 -0.097 0.144 x5 1.000 -0.056 -0.002 x6 1.000 0.086 x7 1.000
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表 3 逻辑回归结果汇总表
Table 3. Results of logistic regression
项目 回归系数 标准误差 自由度 显著性 坡度 0.975 0.147 1 0.000 坡向 1.333 0.824 1 0.037 地形曲率 0.719 0.165 1 0.000 到水系距离 1.971 0.286 1 0.000 到断层距离 1.759 0.127 1 0.000 夜间灯光指数 1.253 0.521 1 0.016 NDVI 0.847 0.184 1 0.000 常量 -0.176 0.079 1 0.026
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表 4 地质灾害易发性评价合理性检验统计表
Table 4. Rationality test results of geohazard susceptibility evaluation
易发性等级 面积/km2 面积比例/% 灾点数量/个 灾害占比/% 灾点密度/（个/100 km2） 极高 2145.30 11.39 84 42.0 3.92 高 3673.03 19.51 71 35.5 1.93 中等 2674.38 14.20 30 15.0 1.12 低 10337.73 54.90 15 7.5 0.15
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