Optimization of geological hazard susceptibility assessment in mountainous townships based on identification of deformation zones
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摘要:
西安市仁宗街道属典型的山区乡镇，地质环境复杂，人类工程活动频繁，崩滑灾害多发频发. 为合理预测山区乡镇地质灾害的空间分布特征，以西安市仁宗街道为研究区，开展了山区乡镇地质灾害易发性评价优化方法研究. 在仁宗街道大比例尺地质灾害调查和孕灾条件分析的基础上，以栅格为评价单元，选取坡度、坡高、坡向、坡型、工程岩组、斜坡结构、距道路距离、切坡程度、植被覆盖度等9个影响因子，采用综合指数法对研究区地质灾害易发性进行评价. 将现场调查确定的变形区和地质灾害点范围栅格化和定量化，对综合指数法的评价结果进行优化，并分别利用ROC曲线进行检验. 结果显示：评价结果精度从81.7%提高至92.4%，有效提高了乡镇地质灾害易发性评价的准确性，可为地质灾害防灾减灾提供科学依据.
Abstract:The Renzong Subdistrict in Xi'an City is a typical mountainous township characterized by complex geology, frequent human engineering activities, and recurrent landslide and collapse disasters. To reasonably predict the spatial distribution characteristics of geohazards in mountainous townships, this paper selects Renzong as the study area for the optimization methods of geohazard susceptibility assessment in mountainous townships. Based on the large-scale geohazard survey and analysis of disaster-pregnant conditions, taking grid cells as the evaluation units, nine impact factors, including slope gradient, slope height, slope aspect, slope type, engineering rock group, slope structure, distance from roads, slope cutting degree, and vegetation coverage, are selected for geohazard susceptibility assessment in the study area with composite index method. Besides, the deformation zones and geohazard sites identified by field survey are rasterized and quantified to optimize the evaluation results of composite index method, with validation by ROC curves. The results show that the evaluation precision has increased from 81.7% to 92.4%, effectively enhancing the accuracy of geohazard susceptibility assessment for townships. The method provides a scientific basis for geohazard prevention and mitigation.
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表 1 评价指标体系及量化分值表
Table 1. Evaluation index system and quantitative scores
评价指标 权重 指标分类 赋值 评价指标 权重 指标分类 赋值 坡度/（°） 0.184 ＜15 1 岩土体 0.173 块状坚硬花岗岩类 2 15~30 2 块状坚硬变质岩类 3 30~45 3 层状软弱碎屑岩类 4 45~60 4 黄土及黄土状土类 5 ＞60 5 距道路距离/m 0.131 ＜50 5 坡向/（°） 0.048 北（337.5~22.5） 1 50~100 4 北东（22.5~67.5） 2 100~200 3 东（67.5~112.5） 3 200~500 2 南东（112.5~157.5） 5 ＞500 1 南（157.5~202.5） 4 NDVI 0.071 0.28~0.43 5 南西（202.5~247.5） 3 0.43~0.58 4 西（247.5~292.5） 2 0.58~0.73 3 北西（292.5~337.5） 1 0.73~0.88 2 坡高/m 0.131 ＜20 1 斜坡结构 0.091 岩质斜坡 2 20~40 2 崩滑堆积体斜坡 3 40~60 3 岩土复合斜坡 4 60~80 4 土质斜坡 5 ＞80 5 切坡程度/m 0.131 ＜5 1 坡型 0.040 凸形 3 5~10 2 凹形 2 10~15 3 直坡 5 15~20 4 阶梯 4 ＞20 5l 
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表 2 地质灾害易发性综合评价结果统计表
Table 2. Statistics of comprehensive assessment results of geohazard susceptibility
易发性等级 综合评价指数 栅格单元数 面积占例（a）/% 地质灾害点数量/个 灾害点占比（b）/% b/a 极高易发区 3.50＜Yi≤5.55 224226 9.05 34 85 9.39 高易发区 3.04＜Yi≤3.50 798390 32.21 5 12.5 0.39 中易发区 2.60＜Yi≤3.04 877436 35.4 1 2.5 0.07 低易发区 1.65≤Yi≤2.60 578348 23.34 总计 2478400 100 40 100
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