典型氯代烃污染场地场界污染通量预测及不确定性分析

姚泓宇; 艾荣慧; 康学远; 吴吉春; 施小清

doi:10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000-3665.202312041

典型氯代烃污染场地场界污染通量预测及不确定性分析

表生地球化学教育部重点试验室（南京大学地球科学与工程学院），江苏南京　210023

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目（2022YFC3703101）；国家自然科学基金项目（41977157）

详细信息

作者简介: 姚泓宇（1999—），男，硕士研究生，主要从事地下水数值模拟研究。E-mail：502022290084@smail.nju.edu.cn

通讯作者: 施小清（1979—），男，博士，教授，主要从事地下水数值模拟研究。E-mail：shixq@nju.edu.cn

中图分类号: P641.69

收稿日期: 2023-12-25

修回日期: 2024-05-03

刊出日期: 2025-05-15

Prediction and uncertainty analysis of pollution flux of typical chlorinated hydrocarbon contaminated sites

Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education （School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing University）, Nanjing, Jiangsu　210023, China

More Information

Corresponding author: SHI Xiaoqing, shixq@nju.edu.cn

Received Date: 25 December 2023

Revised Date: 03 May 2024

Publish Date: 15 May 2025

摘要

摘要:
准确评估有机污染场地中重非水相液体的溶解相污染羽场界污染通量及其不确定性对于场地风险评估及决策管理至关重要。在实际场地中，由于地下水流场的复杂性，多个污染源的溶解污染羽扩散方向并不完全一致。常用的数值模型虽然模拟精度高，但需要大量的场地调查资料，在实际场景中场地提供的资料难以满足这种需求，而目前常用的解析模型则未考虑地下水流场的复杂性及多个污染源同时存在的问题。针对该问题，文章基于升尺度解析模型，结合流函数及坐标转换方法，利用常州某典型氯代烃污染场地的土壤和地下水观测数据，基于极大似然估计反演方法识别污染源区，推估其各污染源区结构参数、地下水流速及低渗介质等效厚度，预测场地场界的污染通量，并基于线性化不确定性传递方法评估其不确定性。反演结果表明，相较于传统解析模型将流场视为单一流向，在考虑实际流场复杂性的情况下参数识别结果不确定性更低，模拟值与观测值拟合更好。该场地内污染状况仍较严峻，且污染范围已超过场界，需对污染羽及时控制并修复。在自然衰减条件下，模拟结果显示2023—2027年的场界总污染通量由73.66 g/d下降至66.77 g/d。校正后的模型预测结果不确定性变化较小，95%置信区间由2023年的（73.66±0.71）g/d变化为2027年的（66.77±0.87） g/d。场地污染通量预测结果为该场地的风险评估与修复提供了决策依据。
- 污染场地 /
- 重非水相液体 /
- 污染通量 /
- 极大似然估计 /
- 不确定性分析 /
- 流线方程
Abstract:
Accurate assessment of the pollution flux and its uncertainty in the plume boundary of NAPL dissolved phase pollution in organic contaminated sites is very important for site risk assessment and decision management. Due to the complexity of underground water flow field, the directions of dissolved pollution plume diffusion of multiple pollution sources are not completely consistent. Traditional numerical models require a lot of data, and usually, the site data is difficult to meet the needs, while current commonly used analytical models do not consider the complexity of groundwater flow field and the simultaneous existence of multiple pollution sources. To solve this issue, this study utilized soil and groundwater monitoring data from a typical chlorinated hydrocarbon polluted site in Changzhou, applying an upscale analytical model integrated with the flow function and coordinate transformation method. The maximum likelihood estimation inversion method was employed to identify pollution source areas, estimate structural parameters, groundwater flow rates, and equivalent low-permeability medium thickness, and predict pollution flux at the site boundary. The uncertainty is evaluated based on linearized uncertainty transfer method. The inversion results show that considering a complex flow field rather than assuming single-direction flow significantly reduces parameter uncertainty while improving agreement between simulated and observed values. The pollution situation at the site is still serious, and the pollution scope has exceeded the field limit. The pollution plume needs to be controlled and repaired in time. Under natural attenuation conditions, the simulation results show that After model correction, the uncertainty of predictions remains minimal, with the 95% confidence interval changed from (73.66±0.71) g/d in 2023 to (66.77±0.87) g/d in 2027. The results of site pollution flux prediction provide the scientific basis for risk assessment and restoration of the site.
- contaminated sites /
- DNAPL /
- mass flux /
- great likelihood estimations /
- uncertainty analysis /
- streamline equation

HTML全文

图 1 DNAPL源区及溶解羽

Figure 1.

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图 2 技术流程图

Figure 2.

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图 3 利用实际取样结果计算通量浓度与驻留浓度的方法

Figure 3.

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图 4 场地概况及监测井布设及地下水流场

Figure 4.

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图 5 2021年6月不同埋深污染羽迁移分布情况

Figure 5.

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图 6 污染物浓度模拟值与观测值对比

Figure 6.

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图 7 参数校正结果及其95%置信区间（污染源等效传质系数先验信息不足时可将先验值设为0.7^{[31 − 32]}）

Figure 7.

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图 8 未来5 a的场界污染通量及污染源残余总质量预测及其95%置信区间

Figure 8.

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表 1 土壤调查结果

Table 1. Soil survey results

污染物	调查时期	检出值/（mg·kg⁻¹）	最大值区域位置
1,2— 二氯乙烷	2020年详查	395	恶唑烷酮车间、噻唑酮车间
1,2— 二氯乙烷	2021年补充调查	333	蚍虫啉车间

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表 2 地下水调查结果

Table 2. Groundwater survey results

污染物	采样深度/m	质量浓度/（μg·L⁻¹）	最大值点位井编号/深度	最大值区域位置
1,2— 二氯乙烷	8	1.16～26759	MW9/8 m	恶唑烷酮车间
1,2— 二氯乙烷	15	1.8～15726	MW14/15 m	恶唑烷酮车间

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表 3 3个污染源流线方程系数

Table 3. Flow line equation coefficients of three sources

参数	污染源1	污染源2	污染源3
a	−1.8	−1.5	−0.0875
b	0	−0.00005	0.00001
c	0	0	0

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