Quantitative evaluation of influencing factors for landslide, rockfall and debris flow hazards in the Nyingchi area of Xizang Autonomous Region
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摘要:
林芝地区地形复杂，断层活动强烈，水系分布广泛，气候条件多变，地质灾害频发，对整个林芝地区经济发展和工程建设的影响日趋显著。其中，滑坡、崩塌、泥石流是林芝地区最常见的几种地质灾害，为了定量分析林芝地区内灾害对影响因子敏感性，文章基于GIS与确定性系数分析法，选取了高程、坡向、地形起伏度、地形湿度指数等10个因子开展对崩滑流灾害敏感性分析。分析结果表明：（1）林芝地区崩滑流灾害影响因子敏感性区间为：高程在0.82～3.79 km，坡向为东向、东北向、南向、西向，地形起伏度在0～24 m/km2，距水系距离0～3 km，归一化植被指数0.47～0.81，距道路距离0～1.5 km，距活动断裂带距离0～3 km，多年平均降雨量61.38～175.37 mm，多年平均气温4.02～17.22 °C，灾害与影响因子之间表现出良好的相关性。（2）影响因子间敏感性大小：多年平均气温>距水系距离>高程>地形起伏度>距道路距离>归一化植被指数>多年平均降雨量>地形湿度指数>距活动断裂带距离>坡向。研究结果对林芝地区工程建设与防灾减灾工作提供参考。
Abstract:The Nyingchi area exhibits complex topography, high fault activity, an extensive water systems distribution, variable climatic conditions, and frequent geological hazards. These factors have a significantly growing impact on the economic development and engineering construction in the entire Nyingchi area. Among these hazards, landslides, collapses, and debris flows are the most common geological hazards in Nyingchi area. In order to quantitatively analyze the sensitivity of hazards in the Nyingchi area to the impact factors, this study, based on GIS and the certainty coefficient analysis method, selected ten factors, including elevation, slope aspect, topographic relief, and topographic humidity index, to conduct sensitivity analysis on landslide, rockfall and debris flow hazards. The analysis results show that: (1) The sensitive range of factors influencing landslide, rockfall and debris flow hazards in the Nyingchi area include elevation between 0.82 and 3.79 km; slope aspects facing eastward, northeastward, southward, and westward; topographic relief ranging from 0 to 24 m/km2; distances from the water system within 0 to 3 km; normalized vegetation index ranging from 0.47 to 0.81; distances from the road wihtin 0 to 1.5 km; distances from the active fault zone within 0 to 3 km; annual average rainfall ranging from 51.15 to 146.14 mm; annual average temperatures between 4.02 and 17.22 °C. There exists a strong correlation between hazards and these impact factors. (2) Sensitivity among influencing factors follows this order: annual average temperature > distance from water system > elevation > topographic relief > distance from road > normalized vegetation index > average annual rainfall > topographic humidity index > distance from the active fault > aspect. The research results provide references for engineering construction and hazards prevention and mitigation work in the Nyingchi area.
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Key words:
- Nyingchi area /
- landslide /
- collapse /
- debris flow /
- sensitivity analysis /
- certainty coefficient
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表 1 影响因子分类标准及确定性系数值
Table 1. Classification standard for impact factors and value of certainty factors
影响因子 因子分级 灾害点/处 PiPj/（处·km−2） CFij CFi 高程/km 0.02～0.82 24 0.00383 −0.425 0.66 0.82～1.54 63 0.00967 0.307 1.54～2.19 154 0.02208 0.702 2.19～2.77 104 0.01277 0.474 2.77～3.31 226 0.02027 0.666 3.31～3.79 141 0.01021 0.344 3.79～4.22 50 0.00306 −0.540 4.22～4.63 10 0.00053 −0.920 4.63～5.04 5 0.00028 −0.957 >5.04 1 0.00009 −0.986 坡向 平面 74 0.00579 −0.137 0.21 北 80 0.00629 −0.063 东北 91 0.00690 0.027 东 98 0.00745 0.098 东南 83 0.00640 −0.046 南 115 0.00804 0.163 西南 86 0.00662 −0.014 西 84 0.00691 0.028 西北 71 0.00583 −0.132 地形起伏度/(m·km−2） 0～24 385 0.01582 0.572 0.64 24～42 206 0.00508 −0.242 42～58 130 0.00389 −0.418 58～76 49 0.00339 −0.493 76～101 10 0.00286 −0.573 101～145 2 0.00689 0.027 145～257 0 0.00000 −1.000 257～602 0 0.00000 −1.000 >602 0 0.00000 −1.000 地形湿度指数 0.47～4.58 105 0.00305 −0.545 0.50 4.58～5.96 216 0.00493 −0.265 5.96～7.64 190 0.00796 0.154 7.64～10.07 151 0.01598 0.576 10.07～13.65 77 0.02164 0.685 >13.65 43 0.03604 0.808 归一化植被指数 0.01～0.18 4 0.00033 −0.950 0.55 0.18～0.33 7 0.00068 −0.899 0.33～0.47 33 0.00295 −0.560 0.47～0.60 89 0.00738 0.088 0.60～0.70 131 0.00984 0.315 0.70～0.81 273 0.01456 0.535 0.81～0.91 244 0.00634 −0.057 距道路距离/km 0～0.3 242 0.27615 0.969 0.57 0.3～0.6 55 0.06455 0.890 0.6～0.9 30 0.03577 0.807 0.9～1.2 21 0.02534 0.730 1.2～1.5 10 0.01244 0.457 >1.5 424 0.00378 −0.436 距水系距离/km 0～1.5 431 0.05304 0.868 0.68 1.5～3 225 0.03093 0.778 3～4.5 30 0.00420 −0.372 4.5～6 17 0.00241 −0.639 6～7.5 29 0.00419 −0.374 >7.5 50 0.00063 −0.906 距活动断裂带距离/km 0～3 493 0.00806 0.688 0.44 3～6 117 0.00297 −0.375 6～9 70 0.00284 −0.402 9～12 32 0.00225 −0.526 12～15 16 0.00173 −0.636 >15 52 0.00342 −0.280 多年平均降雨量/mm 25.76～47.13 127 0.00749 0.099 0.54 47.13～61.38 199 0.00422 −0.372 61.38～78.30 206 0.01036 0.347 78.30～99.67 67 0.00725 0.070 99.67～123.72 77 0.01308 0.481 123.72～149.54 64 0.01399 0.515 149.54～175.37 37 0.00883 0.235 175.37～201.19 5 0.00126 −0.812 201.19～253.74 0 0.00000 −1.000 多年平均温度/°C −21.52～−8.49 0 0.00000 −1.000 0.75 −8.49～−5.32 1 0.00008 −0.988 −5.32～−2.50 9 0.00048 −0.928 −2.50～0.49 30 0.00162 −0.758 0.49～4.02 87 0.00513 −0.237 4.02～7.89 200 0.01475 0.539 7.89～12.47 265 0.02312 0.704 12.47～17.22 165 0.01741 0.609 17.22～23.56 25 0.00218 −0.675 
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