Research on high-altitude avalanche susceptibility area zoning based on informativeness modeling in the Duoxiong River Basin, Nyingchi area of Xizang Autonomous Region
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摘要:
随着全球气候变暖，冰雪融化速率加剧，雪崩灾害事件频发，严重威胁高寒山区的人民生命财产和交通廊道安全。以雅鲁藏布江下游多雄河流域为研究对象，基于遥感解译和野外调查，识别并验证了70个雪崩点，运用皮尔逊相关系数进行共线性分析，综合选取了高程、坡度、坡向、坡面曲率、地表切割深度、地表覆盖类型、植被覆盖度、地形湿度指数、年平均最低气温、归一化差雪指数等10个评价因子构建雪崩易发性评价体系，通过ArcGIS平台使用信息量模型进行雪崩易发性分区，将研究区分为低易发、中易发、高易发区三类，并采用ROC曲线进行了精度检验。结果表明：雪崩易发性评价模型AUC值为0.835，具有较好的预测精度；低易发、中易发、高易发区面积分别为60.61 km2、74.33 km2、96.91 km2，分别占研究区总面积的26.14%、32.06%、41.80%，其中高易发区主要分布在中高及高海拔地区，以多雄拉山、拉格最为典型。最后依据主-被动防御措施相结合提出空−天−地一体化监测预警技术和相应建筑结构。该研究可为多雄河流域防灾减灾提供技术支撑和科学参考。
Abstract:With global climate warming, the rate of snow and ice melting has accelerated, leading to frequent avalanche disasters, which seriously threaten people's lives and properties and the safety of transportation corridors in alpine mountainous areas. Taking the Daxiong River Basin downstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River as the research object, 70 avalanche points were identified and verified based on remote sensing interpretation and field investigation. Pearson correlation coefficient analysis was used for conducting covariance analysis, and 10 evaluation factors including elevation, slope, slope direction, ground curvature, surface cutting depth, surface cover type, vegetation coverage, TWI, average annual minimum temperature, and NDSI were comprehensively selected to construct an avalanche susceptibility evaluation system. The information value model was used for avalanche susceptibility zoning on the ArcGIS platform, dividing the study area into three categories: low susceptibility, medium susceptibility, and high susceptibility zones, and accuracy verification was conducted using ROC curve. The results show that the AUC value of the avalanche susceptibility evaluation model is 0.835, indicating good predictive accuracy. The areas of low, medium, and high susceptibility zones are 60.61 km2, 74.33 km2, and 96.91 km2, respectively, accounting for 26.14%, 32.06%, and 41.80% of the total area of the study area. High susceptible zones are mainly located in mid-to-high and high-altitude areas, with Mount Duoxiongla, and Lage being typical. Finally, based on the combination of active and passive defense measures, integrated monitoring and early warning techniques, and corresponding architectural structures are proposed, providing technical support and scientific reference for disaster prevention and mitigation in the Duoxiong River Basin.
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Key words:
- Duoxiong River Basin /
- avalanche /
- remote sensing /
- information value model /
- susceptibility /
- defensive measure
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表 1 评价因子TOL及VIF值
Table 1. Tolerance （TOL） and variance inflation factor （VIF） values of evaluation factors
因子 容忍度 方差膨胀因子 因子 容忍度 方差膨胀因子 高程 0.650 1.538 植被覆盖度 0.532 1.880 坡度 0.127 7.858 地形湿度指数 0.612 1.633 坡向 0.703 1.422 年平均最低气温 0.732 1.366 坡面曲率 0.831 1.204 地表切割深度 0.152 6.597 归一化差雪指数 0.667 1.498 
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表 2 评价因子分级
Table 2. Grading of evaluation factors
因子类型 雪崩评价因子 分级 地形因子 高程/ m < 3500 、3500 ～3800 、3800 ～4100 、4100 ～4400 、4400 ～4700 、4700 ～5000 、>5000 坡度/ （°） <20、20～30、30～40、40～50、>50 坡向 北、东北、东、东南、南、西南、西、西北 坡面曲率/ m−1 <−7.8、−7.8～−2.3、−2.3～−0、0～6.8、>6.8 地表切割深度/ m <5.0、5.0～9.6、9.6～15、15～22、>22 地貌因子 土地覆盖类型 耕地、林地、灌木、水体、裸地、冰雪 植被覆盖度 <0.025、0.025～0.05、0.05～0.075、0.075～0.1、>0.1 水文因子 地形湿度指数 <5.1、5.1～6.8、6.8～8.8、8.8～12、>12 气象因子 年平均最低气温/ °C <−3.4、−3.4～−1.8、−1.8～−0.2、−0.2～1.4、>1.4 归一化差雪指数 <0.4、0.4～0.5、0.5～0.6、0.6～0.7、>0.7
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表 3 雪崩评价因子信息量
Table 3. Summary table of avalanche evaluation factors information
影响因子 分级 所占栅格数 Si/S 雪崩数/个 Ni/N $ \rm{ln}\dfrac{{\mathit{N}}_{\mathit{i}}/\mathit{N}}{{\mathit{S}}_{\mathit{i}}/\mathit{S}} $ ×104高程/ m < 3500 773678 0.3327 0 0.0000 − 10000 3500 ～3800 361921 0.1557 5 0.0714 − 7790 3800 ～4100 404881 0.1741 23 0.3286 6349 4100 ～4400 342622 0.1474 23 0.3286 8019 4400 ～4700 251617 0.1082 11 0.1571 3730 4700 ～5000 150366 0.0647 7 0.1000 4359 > 5000 40031 0.0172 1 0.0143 −1866 坡度/ （°） <20 395019 0.1703 7 0.1000 − 5322 20～30 433150 0.1867 23 0.3286 5652 30～40 620720 0.2676 22 0.3143 1610 40～50 526804 0.2271 13 0.1857 −2011 >50 344244 0.1484 5 0.0714 − 7311 坡向 北 274973 0.1185 6 0.0857 − 3241 东北 380618 0.1641 12 0.1714 439 东 374654 0.1615 13 0.1857 1397 东南 208242 0.0898 6 0.0857 −461 南 387634 0.1671 15 0.2143 2488 西南 394473 0.1700 11 0.1571 −789 西 203495 0.0877 2 0.0286 − 11217 西北 95848 0.0413 5 0.0714 5475 坡面曲率/ m−1 <−7.8 47568 0.0205 0 0.0000 − 10000 −7.8～−2.3 220487 0.0948 5 0.0714 − 2834 −2.3～0 911810 0.3922 27 0.3857 −166 0～6.8 1086647 0.4673 36 0.5143 957 >6.8 58634 0.0252 2 0.0286 1249 地表切割深度/m <5.0 464283 0.1989 10 0.1429 − 3310 5.0～9.6 813384 0.3485 38 0.5429 4433 9.6～15 665568 0.2851 16 0.2286 − 2211 15～22 314928 0.1349 4 0.0571 − 8591 >22 76041 0.0326 2 0.0286 − 1312 土地覆盖类型 耕地 2005 0.0009 0 0.0000 − 10000 林地 604215 0.2599 1 0.0143 − 29010 灌木 399471 0.1718 7 0.1000 − 5413 水体 12408 0.0053 0 0.0000 − 10000 裸地 1238 0.0005 0 0.0000 − 10000 冰雪 1305652 0.5616 62 0.8857 4557 植被覆盖度 <0.025 1738908 0.7479 44 0.6286 − 1739 0.025～0.05 208206 0.0896 25 0.3571 13833 0.05～0.075 141003 0.0606 1 0.0143 − 14458 0.075～0.1 121527 0.0523 0 0.0000 − 10000 >0.1 115290 0.0496 0 0.0000 − 10000 地形湿度指数 <5.1 624456 0.2692 11 0.1571 − 5382 5.1～6.8 864592 0.3727 24 0.3429 −834 6.8～8.8 601375 0.2592 25 0.3571 3205 8.8～12 182304 0.0786 10 0.1429 5977 >12 47210 0.0203 0 0.0000 − 10000 年平均最低气温/°C <−3.4 232991 0.1002 9 0.1286 2492 −3.4～−1.8 163430 0.0703 2 0.0286 − 9003 −1.8～−0.2 206279 0.0887 9 0.1286 3710 −0.2～1.4 512660 0.2205 16 0.2286 359 >1.4 1209587 0.5203 34 0.4857 −687 归一化差雪指数 <0.4 609750 0.2623 2 0.0286 − 22172 0.4～0.5 212535 0.0914 4 0.0571 − 4701 0.5～0.6 386757 0.1664 11 0.1571 −572 0.6～0.7 857925 0.3691 41 0.5857 4617 >0.7 257355 0.1107 12 0.1714 4371
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表 4 雪崩分区结果
Table 4. Avalanche zoning results
易发性 面积/km2 面积占比/% 雪崩点数量/个 雪崩点占比/% 低易发区 60.61 26.14 0 0 中易发区 74.33 32.06 10 14.29 高易发区 96.91 41.80 60 85.71
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