Analysis on the characteristics of geological disasters and effectiveness of early warning duiring heavy rainfall on “23•7” in Beijing
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摘要:
极端降雨常伴随群发性地质灾害发生，严重危害易发区人民群众生命财产安全，影响经济社会健康发展。总结分析极端降水灾害时空分布特点及预警成效，对于提高地质灾害综合防御能力具有重要意义。以2023年“23•7”强降水引发的突发地质灾害为研究对象，以“北京市突发地质灾害监测预警系统”精细化降水数据为基础，分析了“23•7”强降水时空分布特性和地质灾害发育分布特征，剖析了地质灾害预警成效，结果表明：“23•7”强降水具有总量大、雨强大、历时长、范围广等特点，极端降水灾害具有群发性，地质灾害分级分类多维度预警成效显著，实现了极端天气条件下因地质灾害零伤亡的目标。研究成果可为积极防范和科学应对极端降水地质灾害提供参考。
Abstract:Extreme rainfall is often accompanied by mass geological disasters, which seriously endangers the safety of people 's lives and property in prone areas and affects the healthy development of the economy and society. Summarizing and analyzing the time-space distribution characteristics of geological disasters due to extreme rainfall and the effectiveness of early warning is of great significance for improving the comprehensive defense ability against geological disasters. Taking the sudden geological disasters caused by “23•7” heavy rainfall in 2023 as the research object, based on the refined precipitation data from the Beijing sudden geological disaster monitoring and early warning system, the time-space distribution characteristics of “23•7” heavy rainfall and the development and distribution characteristics of geological disasters were analyzed, and the early warning effect of geological disasters was discussed. The results show that the“23•7”heavy rainfall has the characteristics such as a large total amount, strong rainfall, long duration and wide range, and the disasters due to extreme rainfall have the characteristics of group occurrence. The multi-dimensional early warning of geological disaster classification has achieved remarkable results and has achieved the goal of zero casualties due to geological disasters under extreme weather conditions. The research results can provide a reference for actively preventing and scientifically responding to extreme rainfall geological disasters.
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表 1 地质灾害预警风险等级划分依据
Table 1. Classification criteria for geological hazard warning risk levels
预警等级 预警指数 无预警 Tl <0.55 蓝色预警（有一定风险） 0.55≤Tl <0.68 黄色预警（风险较高） 0.68≤Tl <0.74 橙色预警（风险高） 0.74≤Tl <0.98 红色预警（风险极高） Tl≥0.98 
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