Analysis of the “631” geological disaster early warning mode and case studies in Hunan Province
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摘要:
降雨是地质灾害的主要诱发因素，但做到精准预测降雨时段和落区很难，这也是传统的地质灾害短期预警误报率较高的原因之一。湖南省地处中南，降雨充沛，地质条件相对脆弱，地质灾害多发频发。为应对日益严峻的地质灾害防治形势，结合湖南多年预警工作经验，构建了“631”递进式地质灾害气象风险预警模式。该预警模式以湖南省地质灾害综合防治信息系统为技术支撑，基于精准度较高的短临雨量预报和实况雨量，形成“提前6 h预报暴雨落区、提前3 h预警、提前1 h叫应、提前半小时再呼应”预警叫应机制。目前该预警模式已广泛应用于湖南省地质灾害防治工作，大大提升了预警效率和精准度。2022年6月初湖南遭遇一轮超历年极值的强降雨过程，地质灾害呈群发性出现，运用该预警模式，2022年转移人数、避让起数均排全国第一，取得了显著的防灾成效。
Abstract:Rainfall is the primary trigger for geological disasters, yet accurately predicting the timing and distribution of rainfall remains challenging, contributing to the high false alarm rates of traditional short-term geological disaster early warning systems. Located in south-central China, Hunan Province experiences abundant rainfall and relatively fragile geological conditions, making it susceptible to frequent geological disasters. To address the escalating challenges of geological disaster prevention and control, a “631” progressive geological disaster meteorological risk early warning model has been constructed based on years of early warning work experience in Hunan Province. This early warning model is technically supported by the comprehensive geological disaster prevention and control information system of Hunan Province, and is based on accurate short-term rainfall forecasts and real-time precipitation. It establishes an early warning and response mechanism, issuing warning six hours in advance to forecast rainfall areas, three hours in advance for general warnings, one hour in advance for responses, and thirty minutes in advance for further response. Currently, this early warning model has been widely applied in geological disaster prevention and control efforts across the province, and greatly improving the efficiency and accuracy of early warnings. In early June 2022, Hunan Province encountered an unprecedented heavy rainfall event that exceeded historical records, and geological disasters occurred in clusters. Through the application of this early warning model, Hunan ranked first nationwide in the number of evacuees and avoidance measures implemented in 2022, demonstrating significant disaster prevention results.
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Key words:
- geological disaster /
- progressive /
- warning mode /
- successful mitigation
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表 1 地质灾害类型分布特征
Table 1. Distribution characteristics of geological hazard types
灾害类型 滑坡 崩塌 泥石流 地面
塌陷地裂缝+
地面沉降合计 数量/起 1737 179 48 41 9 2013 比例/% 86.3 8.9 2.4 2.0 0.4 100 
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表 2 地质灾害灾情级别占比情况
Table 2. Proportion of loss level
灾情级别 特大型 大型 中型 小型 合计 数量/起 2 6 52 1954 2013 比例/% 0.1 0.3 2.6 97.0 100
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