Analysis of geological hazards caused by the “23 • 7” heavy rainfall in the northern section of Taihang Mountain in Hebei Province
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摘要:
强降雨是引发地质灾害的主要因素。中国北方地区目前多侧重短时强降雨引发地质灾害方面的研究，对区域性极端降水条件下地质灾害特征规律方面研究尚存在不足。基于“23•7”强降雨引发的地质灾害样本分析，研究了太行山河北段地质灾害发生的规律特征。结果表明：（1）地质灾害呈现出多发、群发性态势，发生数量达历史新高，类型以崩塌、滑坡、泥石流为主，激发新的地质灾害明显增多；（2）地质灾害发生时空范围与强降雨区域高度吻合，太行山南段和北段呈现差异性分布；（3）泥石流造成的损失最大，坡面型泥石流明显多发，松散物覆盖型滑坡多发易发。研究结果可为极端降水条件下地质灾害防范提供参考。
Abstract:Heavy rainfall is the main factor triggering geological disasters. In the northern region of China, most of the researches focus on the geologic disasters caused by short-term heavy rainfall, and the researches on the characteristics of geologic disasters under regional extreme precipitation conditions are still insufficient. Based on the sample analysis of geological disasters triggered by the “23•7” heavy rainfall, the regular characteristics of geological disasters in the Hebei section of the Taihang Mountains were studied. The results show that: (1) geologic hazards show the trend of multiple and group occurrence, and the number of occurrences reaches a new high in history, and the types of avalanches, landslides, and mudslides are the main ones, which stimulate new geologic hazards to increase significantly; (2) the spatial and temporal scales of occurrence of geologic hazards and the area of heavy rainfall are highly coincident with each other, and the south and north sections of the Taihang Mountains show a differentiated distribution; (3) mudslides cause the most damage, and slope-type mudslides are obviously more frequent, and the loose material-covered landslides are more frequent and easier to occur. cover type landslides are more frequent and prone to occur. The results of the study can provide a reference for the prevention of geologic disasters under extreme precipitation conditions.
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Key words:
- Doksuri /
- extreme precipitation /
- geological disaster /
- characteristic pattern /
- Taihang Mountain
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表 1 河北省特大暴雨洪地质灾害灾情汇总表
Table 1. Summary table of extraordinarily heavy rainfall floods and geological disasters in Hebei Province
县区 按灾害类型划分 按威胁对象划分 崩塌 滑坡 泥石流 地面塌陷 居民点 道路 其它 涞水县 66.5 138 925 0.05 1 059 70.5 0.05 易县 210 206 30.5 486 901.5 31 阜平县 261.5 49.7 405 296 20 400.2 满城区 82 221.6 31 62.6 272 曲阳县 180 20 20 180 涞源县 1 81.8 17 6 105.8 徐水区 0.6 0.5 0.7 25.2 26.5 0.5 唐县 10 10 涿鹿县 89 65.72 260.72 127.96 259.84 27.64 怀来县 34 26 8 赤城县 0.15 0.5 0.65 平山县 66 66 信都区 3.9 115.5 119.4 内丘县 5 36.5 41.5 沙河市 10.7 10.7 临城县 0.23 0.1 0.33 海港区 0.5 1 1.5 合计/万元 764.38 956.12 1 886.42 538.25 2 865.44 661.84 617.89 
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表 2 河北省极端降水引发地质灾害情况表
Table 2. Table of geological hazards caused by extreme rainfall in Hebei Province
极端降水年月 过程起止日期 小时最大雨强/（mm·h−1） 最大过程降雨量/mm 发生地质灾害数量/起 63•8 1963年8月1—10日 104.3 2 051.0 38 96•8 1996年8月3—6日 80.1 670.0 363 12•7 2012年7月21—22日 112.0 372.6 111 16•7 2016年7月19—21日 102.8 816.5 198 23•7 2023年7月29—8月2日 110.9 1 003.4 592
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表 3 地质灾害气象风险预警等级与指数对应表
Table 3. Geological disaster meteorological risk warning level and index corresponding table
地质灾害气象风险预警等级 地质灾害预警指数 灾害概率/% 4级（蓝色预警） T<−2 <20 3级（黄色预警） −2≤T＜0 20～50 2级（橙色预警） 0≤T＜2 50～80 1级（红色预警） T≥2 >80
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表 4 台风杜苏芮影响期间地质灾害预警预报成效情况表
Table 4. Table of the effect of geological disaster warning and forecast during the influence of Typhoon Doksuri
序号 日期 预警等级 红色预
警区地
质灾害
发生数
/处橙色预
警区地
质灾害
发生数
/处黄色预
警区地
质灾害
发生数
/处无预警
区地质
灾害发
生数
/处灾害发
生总数
/处预报
准确率
/%1 7月29日 红色预警 3 7 0 0 10 100 2 7月30日 红色预警 37 0 0 1 38 97 3 7月31日 红色预警 450 0 0 4 454 99 4 8月01日 红色预警 67 7 1 0 75 100 5 8月02日 橙色预警 0 3 0 0 3 100 6 8月03日 橙色预警 0 6 1 0 7 100 7 8月04日 橙色预警 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 8月05日 橙色预警 0 2 0 0 2 100 9 8月06日 橙色预警 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 8月07日 黄色预警 0 0 0 2 2 0 11 8月08日 黄色预警 0 0 0 1 1 0
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